S&P index sees a slight gain, while Dow and small caps perform well and Nasdaq declines

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jul 2, 2025
    Funds are shifting from big tech stocks to the Dow 30 and small-cap stocks. The NASDAQ index has dropped by 111.2 points, or 0.55%. On the other hand, the Dow has risen by 470.66 points, an increase of 1.05%. The small-cap Russell 2000 has gained 33 points, up by 1.55%. The S&P index sits between the Dow and the NASDAQ, with a slight increase of just 0.04%. This trend shows a rebalancing across the stock market. The decline in large-cap tech has pulled down the NASDAQ, while money entering more traditional sectors and smaller companies has boosted the Dow and the Russell 2000. This shift isn’t just superficial — it reflects changes in market values and earnings expectations. The NASDAQ’s drop signals that investors are less interested in high-growth tech firms for now. In contrast, the Dow’s strong gain indicates a preference for sectors with more stable cash flow connected to the overall economy. The Russell 2000’s rise of 1.55% suggests investors are looking for opportunities beyond the largest companies, as high valuations deter new investments in previous leaders. Such movements often hint at long-term trends, especially when they coincide with shifts in bond yields or central bank policies. For those tracking short-term trends and options trading, smaller stocks often behave differently. They usually have lower liquidity and wider bid-ask spreads, but can experience sharper price movements in both directions. As a result, we expect higher implied volatility for these stocks in near-term contracts. This creates opportunities for straddle writers or short-term trades using vertical spreads. On a broader scale, the S&P’s mere 0.04% increase suggests the market lacks a clear unifying theme right now. Instead, it reacts based on specific sector influences. In such cases, we dig deeper — it’s not just about whether the whole market is up or down, but whether certain sectors are genuinely gaining traction or just going through mechanical rebalancing. We’re noticing growing interest in shorter-dated put options for NASDAQ stocks, with a shift in skew indicating that more investors are seeking protection against downside risk. While this doesn’t ensure a decrease in prices, it shows caution about chasing higher prices without a solid reason. Conversely, call volumes for Russell 2000 ETFs and the underlying stocks have increased, especially for the 1–2 week timeframe. We see this as speculative trading rather than hedging, given changes in open interest and relatively low volume in similar put options. Volume in Dow options also highlights increased weekly rotation strategies. We’re seeing selling pressure in longer-dated calls and renewed buying interest in near-term in-the-money strikes, typically favored by traders looking for short-term gains tied to earnings or economic announcements. Expect trading volume to focus on short expiries, with delta hedging flows likely causing larger price swings late in the trading day, especially ahead of important data releases. Traders should be cautious about the timing of their trades, as liquidity can quickly diminish, particularly near market close.

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