Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin might hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, with a target of $135,000 by the third quarter. This forecast focuses on two main factors: large investments in Bitcoin ETFs during the second quarter and increased demand from corporate treasuries. In the second quarter of 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries bought around 245,000 BTC. Since January 2024, ETFs have seen over $48 billion in net purchases, boosting Bitcoin’s value. This forecast is based on measurable demand. Standard Chartered’s projection is grounded in actual numbers from two sources: exchange-traded funds and company reserves. They are tracking coins closely. The removal of 245,000 BTC from circulation significantly affects supply. As we’ve seen in past cycles, when supply decreases and interest remains high, prices tend to rise. The $48 billion invested in spot ETFs isn’t just a figure; it shows a trend among institutional investors who follow strict guidelines. Their regular net purchases indicate these investments are viewed as long-term held assets, providing a level of stability that was often missing in earlier cycles. Looking ahead, the decisions made by corporate treasurers should not be seen as isolated choices. They respond to economic conditions. These choices typically follow softer government yields and show a cautious approach to maintaining purchasing power. Central banks have expressed readiness to keep their policies flexible, increasing the appeal of assets with fixed supply. Here are some key points to consider: – Prices are unlikely to rise smoothly; increased institutional buying might lead to sharp bouts of volatility. – Traders should prepare for sudden price changes rather than gradual ones. This is important for managing collateral, especially if margin ratios can be negatively affected by price changes during weekends or when trading volumes are low. Keeping some liquidity available during quieter times may help avoid stress on capital. Recent patterns in long-term options suggest that there is already optimism about the end of the quarter being factored into prices. This indicates a deeper level of confidence. Volatility sells, especially with September options, show expectations for higher spot prices, but this also creates some imbalance across price ranges. The call side is getting crowded, which could lead to quick adjustments if sell-side inventory is low. High implied volatility makes short positions unattractive without protective strategies, so it might be wise to layer spreads or reduce high-risk positions. Additionally, we view the current ETF investments not only as drivers of price but also as stabilizers for volatility over time. As more Bitcoin is put into these funds, less is available for active trading. This makes large trades harder to execute without affecting prices, which will impact delta hedging efficiency as key expiry dates approach. Pay attention to rollover flows when they coincide with large ETF inflows or outflows, as that is where we could see mispriced spreads. Finally, when treasuries make moves, they often do so quietly. This discretion means that price increases may go unnoticed until small imbalances appear in order books. Keep an eye on futures premiums and the gaps between forward and swap rates—they can reveal more than headlines. If these gaps widen without any new developments, it may indicate that more buyers are slowly accumulating assets, but with strong intent.

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