Switzerland’s producer and import prices fell by 0.2% month on month in January. This was below the forecast of a 0.1% increase.
The report combines two measures: prices charged by Swiss producers and prices paid for imports. It offers a monthly snapshot of cost pressure in the supply chain.
Implications For Inflation And Policy
The unexpected drop in Swiss producer and import prices suggests inflation is cooling faster than expected. This increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cut interest rates sooner. In our view, this also raises the risk of a weaker Swiss franc (CHF) in the weeks ahead.
The SNB kept its policy rate at 1.50% through the final two quarters of 2025, as inflation pressures remained persistent. But this new data, together with a recent online search pointing to January 2026 CPI slowing to 1.2%, changes the outlook. The central bank now has a stronger case to loosen monetary policy.
Based on this view, we think derivative traders should consider positioning for a weaker franc. One possible strategy is to buy call options on EUR/CHF, targeting a move toward 0.9800, a level last seen in late 2024. This approach limits downside risk while keeping upside exposure if the SNB shifts policy.
Another option is to trade Swiss interest rate futures, especially SARON-based contracts. The market may not fully price in a rate cut at the coming March meeting. Buying these futures is a direct way to bet that short-term interest rates will fall more than investors currently expect.
Equity Market Opportunities
This backdrop may also support Swiss equities, since lower borrowing costs can help businesses. We see a potential opportunity in buying call options on the Swiss Market Index (SMI). Past easing cycles, such as the one that began in 2015, show that rate-sensitive sectors like financials and consumer discretionary often perform well.
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