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    Switzerland’s producer and import prices fell 2.2% year on year, down from 1.8% previously

    by VT Markets
    /
    Feb 23, 2026
    Switzerland’s producer and import prices fell 2.2% year on year in January, down from -1.8% in the previous period. This reading shows prices are falling faster than before. It compares the index level with the same month one year earlier.

    Implications For The Swiss Economy

    The move to -2.2% is a clear deflationary signal for Switzerland. It supports the disinflation trend seen through 2025 and increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In the coming weeks, we should expect a more dovish tone from the SNB. This producer-price deflation comes after a weak growth period. In the second half of 2025, GDP growth struggled to rise above 0.4% on an annualized basis. Consumer inflation also remains low, with January 2026 at just 1.1%, well below the central bank’s target. Taken together, the case for easier policy is hard to ignore. The SNB has shown it is willing to move early, as it did with the surprise rate cut in spring 2024. Markets are now pricing in more than an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the March SNB meeting. This latest data is likely to reinforce that view. For forex traders, this strengthens the bearish case for the Swiss franc. A potential trade is to go long EUR/CHF options as policy divergence widens against a more cautious European Central Bank. EUR/CHF has been hovering near 0.9900, and it now has a plausible path back to 1.0150, a level last seen in early 2025. For equities, a weaker franc and lower borrowing costs tend to support the export-heavy Swiss Market Index (SMI). Large constituents such as Nestlé, Roche, and Novartis earn most of their revenue abroad, which boosts reported earnings in franc terms. One way to express this view is to buy SMI call options that expire after the March SNB meeting.

    Rates Markets And Trade Positioning

    Rate markets also suggest a straightforward setup. To position for lower rates, consider buying futures linked to the Swiss Average Rate Overnight (SARON). Current pricing for mid-2026 contracts may not fully reflect the chance of a second cut later this year if deflation persists. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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