Switzerland’s trade surplus falls to CHF 4.59 billion in July due to rising imports and declining exports
by VT Markets
/
Aug 21, 2025
Switzerland’s trade surplus fell in July, dropping to CHF 4.59 billion from CHF 5.79 billion. This decrease happened due to a 1.2% rise in imports and a 3.8% drop in exports.
The trade data for July shows a noticeable shrinking of our surplus, mainly because of the 3.8% decline in exports. This suggests that global demand is weakening, especially for our high-value goods like pharmaceuticals and watches. This situation is likely putting negative pressure on the Swiss franc.
Caution from the Swiss National Bank
This weak export number makes the Swiss National Bank (SNB) more cautious. With their next policy meeting set for September 18th, this data makes it less likely for them to raise interest rates. The SNB has been concerned about the strong franc, and this report confirms those worries.
In the coming weeks, we believe it makes sense to prepare for a weaker franc. Buying call options on currency pairs like USD/CHF or EUR/CHF that expire after the September SNB meeting can be a way to benefit from this outlook. This strategy has potential for gains while keeping risks well-defined and limited.
This perspective is supported by the latest manufacturing PMI data from the Eurozone, which showed a contraction at 48.5. This signals ongoing weakness in our largest export market. While Swiss inflation was still at 2.1% earlier this month, the SNB is likely to focus on the increasing risks to economic activity. We saw a similar situation in late 2024 when a strong franc started to negatively impact growth.
Effect on the Swiss Market Index
We also need to think about how this affects the Swiss Market Index (SMI), which has a strong focus on large exporters. A potentially weaker franc could benefit the earnings of companies like Nestlé and Roche. Therefore, options strategies that are optimistic about the SMI while being negative on the franc might effectively leverage this situation.
Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
by VT Markets
Aug 21, 2025
Insights 
VT 
