TD Securities expects oil balances to tighten through the summer even if a comprehensive agreement fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The bank’s scenario analysis points to deep deficits from June to November, with the shortfall peaking in July before easing towards year-end, as operational constraints and restart lags keep supply from rebounding quickly despite improved Middle East transit.
Under this best-case reopening, TD estimates 1bn barrels of production would be lost between June and November, while inventories would still drop by 800m barrels. As June cargoes arrive in July and early August, Asian refiner runs could rise by 1.5–2m b/d, yet reduced SPR flow alongside constrained output would leave the July deficit at 9.7m b/d. From September into November, recovering Middle East supply is expected to narrow deficits, with production back to pre-war levels by November; exports are assumed to rebound to roughly 12m b/d through the Strait, while another 3–3.5m b/d continues via Yanbu and Fujairah bypass routes.
Outlook for Oil Market Tightness and Investment Opportunities
We believe oil markets are poised for significant tightening in the coming weeks, regardless of headlines about a potential Hormuz deal. Current data already shows global commercial crude inventories are sitting below their five-year average, providing very little cushion for any supply disruptions. The fundamental math points to deep deficits this summer even under the most optimistic scenarios.
The peak of this tightness is expected in July, creating a clear opportunity for bullish positions. We anticipate the market deficit could widen to over 9 million barrels per day as Asian refineries increase processing while supply remains constrained. This suggests buying front-month call options or bull call spreads to capture an expected price spike in the near term.
Risks, Volatility, and Trade Strategies
We must be cautious of optimistic headlines, as any potential deal faces significant logistical and political hurdles before impacting physical supply. The historical precedent of geopolitical tensions, such as the price spike to nearly $150 in 2008, shows how quickly sentiment can shift on tight fundamentals. This environment suggests implied volatility will remain elevated, making short-dated options a valuable tool.
As we look toward the end of the third quarter, the supply picture is expected to improve as Middle Eastern production gradually returns. This creates a potential divergence between the extremely tight summer months and a more balanced market into the fourth quarter. Therefore, we are considering trades that capitalize on this structure, such as long positions in July or August contracts against short positions in contracts for November or December delivery.
