TD Securities commodity strategists see more upside for gold. They point to easier Federal Reserve policy, core PCE staying near 3%, and ongoing currency debasement.
They also see broader support for commodities from geopolitical tensions, tariffs, demand, and easier money. They note that gold and silver are still below record highs, and they do not expect a major selloff.
Gold Target And Fed Backdrop
TD Securities sets a possible gold target near $5,700/oz. This view is based on the Fed leaning more toward its maximum employment goal while core PCE remains close to 3%.
They add that gold, silver, and copper could benefit from the same “debasement trade.” In this trade, investors use commodities to diversify portfolios, especially when supply constraints remain.
The article says it was created with help from an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. It is credited to the FXStreet Insights Team, which compiles market notes from both external and internal analysts.
There is a clear path for gold to reach new highs, potentially near $5,700/oz, based on today’s economic setup. At its January 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative stance, while the latest Core PCE reading showed inflation still elevated at 2.9%. Easier money alongside sticky inflation tends to support hard assets.
Options Positioning For Upside
For derivatives traders, this outlook supports building long exposure using call options. One approach is to buy out-of-the-money calls that expire in late 2026 or early 2027. This can offer leveraged upside toward the target price, while keeping risk capped at the premium paid.
The sharp swings in 2025 showed how sensitive gold can be to changes in Fed messaging. Current implied volatility in gold options is moderate, which may make it a reasonable time to build long positions before a potential breakout. Any pullbacks in gold may offer buying opportunities in the weeks ahead.
This is mainly a currency debasement trade, which can lift commodities more broadly. That is why silver and copper may also strengthen, as investors look for diversifiers when fiat currencies weaken. Silver futures have already gained more than 8% this year, supported by both monetary and industrial demand.
Geopolitical tensions and ongoing trade tariffs also help support precious metals and may limit the risk of a deep selloff. This pattern appeared during the mild correction in late 2025, when gold quickly stabilized. Traders may want to stay focused on the larger trend, as accommodative central banks and persistent inflation remain a strong tailwind.
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