Tesla shares extended gains on Friday, rising alongside SpaceX-linked optimism after Thursday’s advance, as markets adopted a risk-on tone tied to expectations of an MoU, or memorandum of understanding, between the US and Iran. The proposed MoU is framed as a step towards a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a development that could reduce geopolitical risk and ease oil pressure. Technically, Thursday’s low is being read as a retest of a potential “handle” within a year-long cup-and-handle setup.
Merger talk between Tesla and SpaceX also fed into the move after CNBC questioned SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell about possible consolidation, though no deal has been confirmed. Chart levels remain central: the neckline is placed around $488.5, with a measured-move target near $765, described as about a 56% gain from the neckline. Tesla is retesting the $365–$380 breakout zone, while $412 and $445 are cited as nearer resistance points ahead of $488.5; a loss of $365–$380 could refocus attention on $300–$320. An oversold Stochastic RSI reading was also cited as a supportive technical signal.
Impact Of US-Iran MOU And Technical Setup
The expected signing of the US-Iran MOU is creating a risk-on environment for us, which could provide tailwinds for the coming weeks. We’ve seen WTI crude already pull back from over $95 a barrel to the low $80s in anticipation of the deal. This easing of oil pressure directly benefits high-growth names like Tesla.
With the stock holding above the critical $365-$380 support zone, we view this as an opportunity for bullish positions. We are looking at July and August call options to give the trade time to develop past the initial resistance at $412. A bull call spread could be a cost-effective way to play the potential move toward the next resistance level at $445.
Merger Speculation And Trading Strategy
The renewed talk of a Tesla-SpaceX merger is adding fuel to the fire, as markets are increasingly pricing in an “Elon premium.” Historically, any tangible link between the two companies has caused sharp rallies and spikes in volatility. We are already seeing implied volatility for out-of-the-money calls increase, suggesting the market is pricing in a significant move.
The primary structure we are watching is the large cup and handle formation with the neckline around $488.5. A decisive break and hold above this level would confirm the pattern, opening up a longer-term measured target near $765. Recent analyst upgrades have already started moving price targets toward the $450 resistance level, citing Tesla’s growing AI story.
However, we must remain disciplined, as this is still a potential setup rather than a confirmed breakout. A failure to hold the $365 level would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis for us. In that scenario, we would shift to consider put options targeting the prior consolidation zone between $300 and $320.
