Ireland’s AIB manufacturing PMI hit 52.2 in January, showing growth in the sector. This number is above the neutral mark of 50, indicating expansion.
Meanwhile, various currencies moved in the market. The USD/INR dropped after a US-India trade deal. In contrast, the Australian dollar gained strength due to actions from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
For currency pairs, EUR/GBP traded cautiously near a five-month low, while GBP/USD remained steady as traders awaited the Bank of England’s rate decision. Gold prices rose with a weaker USD, although gains seemed limited because geopolitical tensions eased.
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Ireland’s January manufacturing PMI is a strong 52.2, showing ongoing growth. This is promising, especially since it surpasses the Eurozone’s flash PMI of 50.8 for the same month. It suggests strength in peripheral economies.
This data may give the European Central Bank more leeway to keep interest rates steady, delaying market expectations for a rate cut. In mid-2025, similar positive data from Germany led to a quick euro rally. Derivative traders might consider selling out-of-the-money puts on EUR/USD, as the currency seems to be stabilizing.
When we examine the EUR/GBP cross, this data highlights a clear economic difference with the UK, where the manufacturing PMI recently fell to 49.5. This suggests that the Bank of England may need to ease policies before the ECB. Traders could look at call spreads on EUR/GBP to take advantage of potential gains while managing risk before the central bank meetings.
Overall market volatility, indicated by the VSTOXX index, has been decreasing from late 2025 highs, currently around 14.5. As central banks adopt a more data-driven approach, we don’t expect sudden policy changes. This environment is good for strategies that benefit from time decay, such as selling short-dated options on stable pairs.
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