The AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed after hitting a new high, the first since November. This change brings a cautious outlook for the short term. Currently, the currency pair is trading below the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, around 0.6484. Sellers aim to keep pressure below this level, focusing on the rising trend line support and the 200-bar moving average, which is situated between 0.6450 and 0.6459. If the price falls below these support levels, it could drop further toward 0.6407 or even lower.

Resistance And Support Levels

Resistance is found within the yellow band, ranging from 0.6553 to 0.6565. As long as the price stays below the 100-bar moving average and this resistance area, sellers are likely to explore lower price levels. Essentially, the momentum for the Australian dollar against the US dollar has slowed. The price peaked at levels not seen since last November, indicating strength. However, that momentum didn’t sustain. Instead, it reversed, suggesting that the market paused before making further moves. Now, we are trading under the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at about 0.6484. This average, calculated over the last 100 candlesticks, acts as a key point for recent price trends. Being below this average indicates that recent price momentum has been directed downward.

Market Analysis And Strategy

From our perspective, sellers are focused on defending this level. Keeping prices below it is crucial for maintaining control. The strategy is straightforward: if the pair doesn’t rise back above this level, buyer confidence will remain weak. Looking ahead, we need to pay attention to the rising trend line and the 200-bar moving average, which are between 0.6450 and 0.6459. The trend line represents a longer-term support path, while the 200-bar moving average serves as a critical line, illustrating medium-term strength versus weakness. If the price falls below these two levels, a more significant drop becomes likely, targeting around 0.6407. This isn’t a small move; it represents a key retracement level and may act as a temporary resting point, but it’s crucial for sellers targeting this area. On the flip side, resistance sits tight in the range of 0.6553 to 0.6565, just above recent failure points. This yellow band is significant—it reflects previous highs and quick selling actions that forced prices down. Unless there’s a clear breakout and hold above this range, short-term sentiment is unlikely to shift. For those trading in this market, the main takeaway is clear: the odds favor a downward movement. The chart structure supports this outlook. Any pullbacks toward the averages or resistance should be seen as chances to reassess risks instead of opportunities to buy into an upward trend. We should remember that some leeway exists, particularly since the support line and the secondary moving average remain intact. Nonetheless, trading decisions should be made with an understanding of how much room there is for prices to fall compared to how quickly the trend could change if resistance is broken or if unexpected economic news arises. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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