EUR/CHF is currently in a descending triangle pattern, trading around 0.9300. The Euro is struggling against the Swiss Franc, and momentum indicators show a continuing bearish trend. The pair is staying above 0.9293, but a drop below this level could expose 0.9280. If this support breaks, the price may fall to 0.9224. On the other hand, if it moves above 0.9327, the short-term outlook could change. Key resistance levels are at 0.9352 and 0.9360. The RSI shows bearish pressure, indicating more potential for downside. On the 4-hour chart, the price is below the 20-period and 50-period simple moving averages, which are acting as resistance. If the price closes above 0.9330, it may weaken the bearish trend, possibly reaching 0.9495. The pair is supported by a zone around 0.9293, which has been tested many times. The Euro represents the currency for 19 EU countries and made up 31% of global forex transactions in 2022. The Euro is influenced by factors like ECB policy, inflation, economic data, and trade balance. Generally, high interest rates and positive trade balances are good for the Euro. Looking at the technical aspects, our strategy is bearish. The descending triangle pattern suggests that consolidation near 0.9300 should not be seen as support but rather as a starting point for a downward move. The fundamental situation supports this view: the European Central Bank recently cut interest rates for the first time in five years by 25 basis points. While officials stress that they are data-driven, the market anticipates at least one more cut this year. This stands in contrast to the Swiss National Bank (SNB), whose President has made it clear that they are ready to intervene to keep the Franc strong against imported inflation. This difference in central bank policies drives our strategy. Any rise toward the 20-period and 50-period simple moving averages presents an opportunity to take short positions. For those trading in the coming weeks, buying put options is a straightforward choice. We are looking specifically at puts with a strike price below 0.9280, aiming for that 0.9224 target mentioned earlier. With Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rising to 2.6% in May, any short-term Euro strength should be seen as a chance to buy these puts at a better price. The bearish momentum is too strong to ignore. For those with a higher risk appetite, a bear put spread could reduce entry costs. You could buy the 0.9280 put and sell the 0.9220 put to finance the position, profiting if it drops to that level. However, caution is key. The SNB’s surprising de-pegging of the Franc in 2015 is a reminder of potential volatility. A strong break and close above 0.9330 would challenge our view and require reassessment, but right now, all signs point toward a breakdown below 0.9293. The pressure is increasing, and the likely path is downward.

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