The US Job Openings data is expected soon, with estimates suggesting 7.378 million for July, down from 7.437 million in June. This data is a lagging indicator, reflecting information from two months ago. However, it does provide useful insights into the labor market alongside the Nonfarm Payroll figures. In Europe, we await the final readings of the PMIs for major economies. These typically have limited impact since the flash PMIs already offered an early look. Therefore, they are not likely to change market conditions much. Several central bank officials will be speaking today. At 07:30 GMT, ECB’s Lagarde and BoE’s Mann will take the floor. RBA’s Bullock will speak at 08:00 GMT, and Fed’s Musalem will address the public at 13:00 GMT. Lastly, at 17:30 GMT, non-voting member Fed’s Kashkari will share his thoughts. All speakers are expected to maintain a neutral stance. Today’s focus, September 3rd, 2025, is on US Job Openings data for July. While European PMI figures are out, they are final readings and rarely cause market shifts because the initial flash data already influenced the market. The key moment will be the American session, which may reveal clues about the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The consensus for the JOLTS report is a slight decrease to 7.378 million openings, continuing a gentle downtrend. This report is two months old but will be assessed alongside last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls data for August, which showed a moderate gain of 165,000 jobs and a slight increase in unemployment to 4.0%. Together, these figures help illustrate the health of the labor market. Numbers below expectations would support the idea that the labor market is softening, likely leading traders to expect a continued pause from the Fed for the rest of the year. We’ve seen interest rate markets react strongly to this narrative, with SOFR futures rallying after the last soft inflation report in August 2025. Confirming labor market weakness could drive this trend further, making long positions in interest rate futures an appealing strategy. Looking back, the market has changed significantly since post-pandemic peaks when job openings exceeded 11 million in 2022. Current levels around 7.4 million show the significant effects of the aggressive rate hikes initiated years ago. This ongoing cooling trend is precisely what the Fed aims for to return inflation to its target. For options traders, this steady cooling suggests that market volatility may stay low. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been trading at a low range, around 14, significantly lower than the heightened levels seen during the 2023 banking crisis. Strategies benefiting from low or declining volatility, such as selling strangles on the S&P 500, could be good options if the JOLTS data meets expectations. While this data is crucial, we also need to pay attention to central bank speakers, especially Fed’s Musalem. Any indication of concern over inflation’s persistence, which is currently just above 3% according to the latest Core PCE data, could quickly change any dovish sentiment from the jobs report. Thus, maintaining cautious positions or using options to limit risk is a wise approach.

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