The eurozone current account balance (not seasonally adjusted) posted a surplus of €34.6B in December. This compares with €12.6B in the prior period.
The data shows a larger surplus in December than earlier reports suggested. The statement did not include a breakdown or the main drivers.
The rise in the eurozone’s current account surplus to €34.6B is a strong positive sign for the euro. It suggests that money coming in from exports is far higher than money going out for imports. We view this as a bullish fundamental signal for the currency in the weeks ahead.
Because of this, we should consider buying call options on the euro versus the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD). The pair has been stuck in a tight range near 1.08, and this data could be the trigger for a break higher. A recent easing in U.S. inflation also supports this view, since it may cap further dollar strength.
The surplus is also positive for large European companies, especially exporters in Germany and France. We should consider buying calls on indices such as the EURO STOXX 50. Recent data backs this up: German factory orders for December 2025 beat expectations on strong foreign demand, which supports the case for solid earnings.
The European Central Bank will likely watch this strength closely. With January 2026 inflation ticking up to 2.3%, a strong economy could push the ECB to sound more hawkish. That makes trades that benefit from higher short-term rates—such as options on EURIBOR futures—more appealing.
This surplus is a major shift from 2022 and 2023, when high energy prices pushed the current account into deficit. The improvement is largely due to lower energy import costs, which reduces outflows and lifts the trade balance. This change suggests euro strength may last and could also raise implied volatility in FX markets.
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