The EURUSD currency pair recently hit its highest level since October 2021, coming close to 1.16297, the high from June. However, it stopped just above this point. Today’s trading also approached this peak but fell short, leading to a retreat back to a known resistance area. The overall trend is still upward, as long as it stays above the support range of 1.1569 to 1.1578. This range includes recent lows and the 100-hour moving average at 1.15499. This area has often prompted bullish reversals and acts as a critical short-term control indicator.

What Happens If It Drops Below Support?

If the EURUSD dips below the 1.1569–1.1578 range, bullish sentiment might weaken, targeting the moving averages at 1.15499 and 1.15367. If these levels break, sellers could take more control. A strong movement above 1.16297 could lead to more buying, confirming the ongoing broader uptrend. Key resistance levels to watch are between 1.16142 and 1.16297, along with the previous high at 1.16355. Support levels include the 1.1569–1.1578 zone and the moving averages at 1.15499 and 1.15367. Buyers remain in control if they stay above 1.1570, but they need a clear breakthrough over 1.16297 for more gains. The situation is simple: the pair has been rising for a while, showing growing optimism, but momentum slowed just below previous highs. The area just under 1.1630 has repeatedly acted as a barrier, stopping upward momentum this week and in June. Even with buyers in charge, the market is hesitant to fully commit unless this level breaks. We are closely monitoring the range between 1.1570 and 1.1580. This is where demand has often returned and where short-term bullish positions have typically held. Below that, other reference points appear, like the hourly moving averages, which are just underneath. If these levels break, it usually leads to more significant retreats—though not always sudden—enough to shake confidence and change trading flows.

Resistance Levels and Market Reactions

From a timing standpoint, it’s not uncommon for prices to shoot up, pause, pull back, and then revisit familiar territory. What matters most is which side shows conviction. When prices rise, pause, and fail to break resistance convincingly, hesitation often follows, caught between excitement and caution. Interestingly, the resistance doesn’t need to be exact to matter. The upper range near 1.1630 has several historical points that stopped previous rallies, lending weight to the idea that this isn’t just a one-time rejection. If bulls push above this level decisively and manage to hold the gain, there is potential for movement without major obstacles. On the downside, risk increases quickly if the key support area is broken. The first control zone is just below 1.1570, but the real risk heightens if the moving averages break. Once that zone is lost, selling can accelerate as traders unwind long positions or speculate on declines. We favor a tactical strategy. Keep risk tight against known levels, and avoid chasing prices into resistance. If there’s a clean, high-volume break upwards, we would typically expect increased interest. Otherwise, sideways trading or a deeper drop back to early July’s lows should not be surprising. Patience is key; forcing a view isn’t necessary. Expect the pair to remain active, but wait for signs that one side has truly gained control before acting. With the price positioned near both a ceiling and a floor, quick reactions around known technical markers are more likely. In summary, supply and demand are balanced. We’ve seen this before: prices encounter resistances, buyers pause, sellers test, but true conviction emerges only when key levels are crossed. For now, we’re observing price behavior at these critical zones, as they tend to shape the tone for upcoming sessions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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