The USDCHF pair is hovering near its lowest point since April as traders await new developments for a stronger trend. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady but indicated two rate cuts for 2025. However, Fed Chair Powell did not provide clear guidance due to ongoing uncertainty. After the announcement, the USD briefly rose, but this was influenced more by minor factors than major changes. Currently, market expectations suggest two rate cuts in 2025, increasing the chances of further reductions. To foster a more positive outlook for the USD, stronger economic data may be required. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.00%, indicating a reluctance to go negative unless absolutely necessary. A further cut to -0.25% is anticipated by the end of the year. ### Technical Analysis In daily technical analysis, the USDCHF pair shows potential for a double bottom formation, with buyers targeting the 0.8475 neckline. Sellers are looking for a break below 0.8038 to pursue lower levels. On the 1-hour chart, an upward trendline supports bullish momentum, suggesting that buyers may continue to use this trendline. They might take advantage of dip-buying opportunities around 0.8145 if prices fall below this trendline. The broader situation reflects that the USD/CHF currency pair is near its April lows, with stalled momentum as traders navigate unclear signals from both central banks. The Federal Reserve is keeping rates steady while hinting at future reductions, without making any promises about its next steps. On the other hand, the SNB has unexpectedly lowered its key rate to zero, suggesting the possibility of negative rates, but this would likely only happen if additional economic pressure arises. For traders focused on options and derivatives, there is a feeling that volatility may be lurking just beneath the surface, rather than happening instantly. Powell’s cautious stance leaves room for market adjustments, especially if upcoming U.S. data differs from expectations. An increase in inflation or stronger labor market conditions could shift expectations and provide temporary support for the dollar, whereas any signs of weakness might have the opposite effect. Jordan’s rate cut, although small, signifies a growing concern about the Swiss franc’s strength and low inflation. Another rate cut is increasingly expected. If this occurs alongside steady or bullish rhetoric from the Fed, it could strengthen the USD/CHF pair. Timing will be critical, especially with December speculation heating up. ### Technical Patterns From a technical standpoint, the emerging patterns matter. The double bottom pattern might seem typical, but it has significant implications. If the pair breaks above the 0.8475 neckline, buyers may quickly step in, eyeing the next upward move. There’s an area of inefficiency there that bulls might want to exploit. However, a break below 0.8038 would invalidate much of the buying setup and shift momentum downward. The current rising trend on the hourly chart is stable, and gradual trendlines can often offer better risk-reward opportunities compared to steep slopes. Traders should stay alert for moves near 0.8145; this price range may serve as a good entry point for those looking to expand their positions. We’re monitoring momentum readings closely. While short-term oversold conditions have emerged, a lack of decisive trading volume during these rebounds raises concerns. Any sustained rally will need to be supported by volume. With no Fed speeches scheduled this week, market focus shifts back to economic data and interest rate differentials. Recent Swiss CPI figures have been stable, but unexpected market movements can still occur. Staying flexible around release times while using options’ implied volatility can help gauge market risk. Also, tracking rate expectations via Fed Funds futures and observing any sustained movement on the short end of the curve is vital. If predictions for another SNB cut begin to rise, the relative attractiveness of the USD could improve, even without clear guidance from the Fed. Paying attention to pattern recognition, trendline support reactions, and momentum confirmations will help guide positioning. The market isn’t in flux but in a waiting pattern, where prices may test both highs and lows. In these situations, clear support and resistance levels become essential. This is why we prefer to observe price reactions instead of trying to predict beyond what the charts suggest.

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