The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) shows that a five-swing diagonal structure is forming since the low on October 28, 2025. The cycle began with wave ((i)), which rose to 73.06, followed by a pullback in wave ((ii)) to 68.20. Next, wave ((iii)) advanced to 79.97, and wave ((iv)) found support at 72.45. Finally, wave ((v)) completed the sequence at 84.03, marking the end of wave 1 in a larger structure. After this, the market entered a corrective phase. Wave 2 formed a complex double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave (a) decreased to 81.48 after wave 1, and wave (b) bounced back to 82.96. The correction continued with wave (c) dropping to 79.30, finishing wave ((w)). Following this, wave ((x)) rose to 83.76. The decline continued, with wave ((y)) unfolding like a zigzag. From wave ((x)), wave (a) fell to 79.07, and the current wave (b) rally is likely temporary before another decline in wave (c) completes wave ((y)) of 2.

Short-Term Perspective

In the short term, dips are likely to attract buying interest as long as the pivot at 71.55 remains secure and the October 28 low of 67.35 holds. This supports the overall bullish trend for GDX. As of December 9, 2025, gold miners appear to be in a healthy consolidation phase following a strong rally. GDX surged over 24% from its low on October 28 to a peak of 84.03 just last week. The current pullback is seen as a complex but normal correction in a larger, sustained uptrend. Derivative traders should exercise caution, as we expect one more leg down to complete this corrective pattern. The ongoing small rally may be a trap before the final decline towards the low 70s. This is a potential short-term bearish opportunity, such as buying puts with January 2026 expirations, targeting the completion of this wave.

Longer-Term Outlook

This technical outlook is influenced by broader market uncertainty ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The November 2025 Consumer Price Index report showed inflation stubbornly holding at 3.7%, which has dampened expectations for an immediate dovish pivot. This macro-level indecision is creating the choppy, corrective price action we are witnessing in the miners. Despite this, the longer-term outlook remains bullish. This expected dip should be viewed as a significant buying opportunity. The market is pricing in a 70% chance of interest rate cuts starting in Q2 2026, which would strongly benefit gold and gold miners. Traders should consider establishing longer-dated bullish positions, like buying summer 2026 call options, once this correction stabilizes. A “double three” correction is common for GDX in a strong new bull market. We saw a similar multi-week consolidation in the summer of 2020 before the ETF soared to multi-year highs. History suggests these phases help shake out weak hands before the next major advance. Thus, a patient strategy is advisable in the coming weeks. One option is to sell cash-secured puts around the 71.55 pivot point to collect premium while waiting for a lower entry. The main strategy is to use the expected weakness to position for a much larger rally that we believe will begin in the new year. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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