The S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) are currently on the rise, moving through an upward wave after falling to 6540.5, which marked the end of wave (4). The ongoing wave (5) is following an impulse Elliott Wave pattern. Wave ((i)) finished at 6718.5, then pulled back to 6593.25. A surge in wave ((iii)) peaked at 6722.5, followed by a drop to 6666. The final rise in wave ((v)) reached 6766.75, marking the beginning of wave 1 at a higher level. The correction for wave 2 took the form of a double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((w)) dropped to 6651.5 after wave 1’s peak, with a rally in wave ((x)) reaching 6750.5. Ultimately, wave ((y)) fell to 6571.25, completing wave 2. The index has now entered wave 3, with wave ((i)) of 3 almost finished. After this, a corrective wave ((ii)) will occur, pulling back from the low on October 17, before the trend continues upward. We expect support to hold at the 6540.5 level during this 3, 7, or 11 swing.

Global Economic Data

In other news, the UK Office for National Statistics will release September’s Consumer Price Index at 06:00 GMT. Trends show that Bitcoin treasury inflows have plummeted by 99%, with Bitcoin now being viewed as a reserve asset for corporations and government treasuries. Looking at the current Elliott Wave structure, the S&P 500 E-mini futures are in a strong upward trend that started in April 2025. However, a short-term pullback is expected before the climb continues. The key support level to monitor is the pivot at 6540.5, which must hold for the bullish outlook to remain. This anticipated dip may be influenced by today’s UK Consumer Price Index data. Markets are bracing for a rise in inflation, which has historically led to volatility, as seen throughout 2023 and 2024 when central banks were sensitive to such figures. A higher-than-expected inflation number could trigger the corrective wave we are predicting. The overall positive sentiment is backed by a global economy that has performed better than expected earlier this year. For example, the latest US jobs report for September 2025 indicated 210,000 new jobs were created, keeping unemployment low at 3.7% and signaling economic strength. This provides a strong basis for corporate earnings and supports buying during market dips.

Derivative Trading Strategy

Despite this, there remains an underlying anxiety as significant changes are happening beneath the surface. We see signs of risk aversion in other asset classes, such as the reported 99% drop in inflows to corporate Bitcoin treasuries. This suggests a notable decline in institutional interest in speculative assets compared to last year’s peak. For derivative traders, the upcoming weeks should focus on taking advantage of this temporary weakness. The strategy should involve viewing any pullback toward the 6600 level as a buying opportunity for the next major upswing. Selling out-of-the-money put spreads below the crucial 6540.5 pivot may be an effective way to enter long positions or to collect premiums while the market stabilizes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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