The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Canada is at 46.1 for July, up from 45.6. This still indicates that the Canadian manufacturing sector is facing ongoing difficulties. The EUR/USD pair has risen above 1.1550 after disappointing US non-farm payrolls and ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which weakened the US Dollar. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has also increased, surpassing 1.3250, as a result of a weaker USD and poor US employment figures. Gold prices hit a weekly high near $3,350, benefiting from a decline in US Treasury bond yields. This shift occurs as the market adjusts its views on the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions after weaker US economic data. In the crypto market, Bitcoin had a strong July but has fallen below $115,000. This drop is due to increased selling pressure and concerns about further declines. In the euro area, economic stability continues due to the EU-US deal and increased spending in Germany. However, a final rate cut is still on the table, depending on wage performance. Given the poor US jobs and manufacturing data from July 2025, we expect the US Dollar to stay under pressure. Historically, weak reports like the notable non-farm payroll miss in May 2021 have led to long periods of dollar weakness. Thus, we may explore options to bet against the dollar in the next few weeks. The rise in EUR/USD above 1.1550 and GBP/USD above 1.3250 marks important breakouts driven by the dollar’s decline. We plan to buy call options on both pairs to take advantage of this upward momentum. However, we should be cautious as talks from the European Central Bank regarding a potential rate cut might limit the Euro’s gains. The drop in US Treasury yields makes gold more appealing, and we expect its price to challenge the $3,350 level again. This situation is similar to the early 2020s when low interest rates drove gold to record highs. We believe that buying gold futures or call options is a solid trade as long as the market expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady. Despite overall market optimism, we are cautious about Bitcoin after its drop below the crucial $115,000 level. This decline appears to be profit-taking, similar to sharp pullbacks during the 2021 bull market, which often led to deeper corrections. We may consider buying put options to protect against further sell-offs. Canada’s manufacturing PMI, though slightly improved, still shows contraction at 46.1, close to mid-2024 levels that indicated economic slowdown. This weakness in the Canadian economy leaves its currency vulnerable, particularly against a strengthening Euro. We would avoid being long the Canadian dollar and may look for chances to short it against the Euro.

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