US stocks have been steady, influenced by various factors. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates today, with three more cuts likely by 2026. This may shift investor attention to the Fed’s future plans. Any surprises from the Fed could impact US stock markets, especially during Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference. Netflix surprised everyone by planning to buy Warner Bros. Discovery for $72 billion. This move has faced complications from a rival offer by Paramount Skydance, adding political issues. Netflix now deals with legal challenges and possible antitrust concerns, which could negatively affect its stock price. NVIDIA received approval to export H200 chips to China, benefiting its stock price. However, US national security worries have emerged, and Chinese regulators might restrict access to foster local production. While this development is currently good for NVIDIA, strict limitations could hurt its market performance. In Australia, social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram are required to block users under 16, with hefty fines for non-compliance. This decision is being watched closely as it could impact the revenues and stock prices of companies like Google and Meta if it proves successful. The S&P 500 is currently moving sideways under resistance at 6930, with possibilities for both upward and downward movements depending on market conditions. With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision occurring today, December 10th, 2025, the market is poised for a rate cut, but the real risk lies in what the Fed indicates for the future. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 85% chance of a 25-basis point cut, meaning this cut is already reflected in stock prices. Traders should think about strategies that take advantage of market volatility, such as straddles on the SPX, as Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference could quickly alter expectations. The main risk is a “hawkish cut,” where the Fed lowers rates but signals fewer cuts for 2026 in its updated dot plot. The latest Core CPI report showed a decline to 2.8% in November 2025, an improvement but still above the Fed’s long-term target, prompting caution. Buying near-term index put options or VIX call options could protect against a market that may need to quickly adjust its views on future monetary policy. The competitive bid for Warner Bros. has created major uncertainty for Netflix, whose shares have dropped over 8% since Paramount’s offer last week. This public battle, combined with increased antitrust scrutiny, suggests a challenging and lengthy process for Netflix. We view this as an opportunity to buy put options on NFLX, expecting that complications around the deal could drive the stock price down in the coming weeks. This situation mirrors past mergers that faced intense regulatory scrutiny, like the failed AT&T and T-Mobile merger in 2011. The implied volatility on Netflix options has risen sharply, making outright long options costly. Instead, traders might consider selling out-of-the-money call spreads to earn premium while keeping a bearish to neutral outlook on the stock. For NVIDIA, the approval to export H200 chips to China is a short-term positive, but there are considerable risks from both sides of the Pacific. Sales to China made up about 19% of NVIDIA’s revenue in fiscal 2024, so any restrictions from Beijing to bolster local industry could be a significant challenge. A collar strategy—buying a protective put and selling a covered call against a long stock position—could secure recent gains while protecting against a sudden drop. Australia’s new ban on social media for users under 16 poses a real threat for companies like Meta and Google. Though Australia is a small market, this serves as an important case for regulators in Europe and North America. Data from the Australian eSafety Commissioner showed that over 90% of teens aged 14-17 used social media in 2024, indicating a large user base now being restricted. The key risk is widespread adoption; if this ban is effective, similar laws in larger markets could severely limit user growth and advertising revenues. This is an ongoing concern that could unfold over several quarters. We consider purchasing long-dated put options on META a smart way to prepare for potential negative trends. The S&P 500 is currently caught between support at 6715 and resistance at 6930, reflecting market uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s decision. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is around 17, a relatively low level suggesting complacency, which might make protective options cheaper. For traders expecting this sideways movement to persist after the initial Fed volatility, selling an iron condor could be a practical strategy to profit as the index remains within this range.

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