The NASDAQ index hit a new intraday high of 22,000.97 but then pulled back to trade closer to previous levels. It gained as much as +121.48 points before settling at 21,880.51, showing a slight increase of just 1.13 points (0.01%). Now, the 22,000 mark is a key point for traders. It serves as a sell point with low risk if tight stop-loss orders are placed above it. If prices fall below this level, it may signal a shift to a more bearish trend.

Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart, past peaks from August 13 form a ceiling between 21,742 and 21,803. Dropping below this range could strengthen sellers and disappoint those hoping for new highs. Attention will then shift to the rising 100-hour moving average at 21,541.67, followed by the 200-hour moving average at 21,434.86. Earlier, when the index fell below the 200-hour moving average in August and early September, it quickly bounced back, limiting any downward movement. For a prolonged downtrend to form, the index must break and stay below both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, which could lead to a longer correction. Right now, the NASDAQ shows signs of fatigue after reaching 22,000 and then quickly reversing. This price rejection is important, especially considering today’s August Consumer Price Index data, which came in a bit higher than expected at 3.6%. This inflation figure makes hopes for a near-term interest rate cut dimmer, making us more cautious at these new highs. Given this situation, we should think about protective strategies. Buying put options with strike prices below 21,800 provides a clear way to bet on a downturn, with risk limited to the premium paid. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has also risen over 12% to 15.5 today, indicating that demand for portfolio insurance is increasing.

Market Outlook

The first major challenge for sellers will be to push the index back below the 21,742 to 21,803 range, which was the ceiling in August 2025. If the index fails to hold above this area, it would confirm that today’s high was a “false breakout,” giving us more confidence to increase bearish positions. Looking back to August and early September 2025, every dip toward the major moving averages was aggressively bought by the market. However, with inflation remaining stubborn, we may not see the same strength this time. A break below the 100-hour moving average at 21,541 would be the first sign that this pullback is different. A similar pattern occurred in late 2021 before the sharp rate hikes began, where new highs were met with weakening momentum as concerns about monetary policy grew. For the current downward trend to gain serious momentum, the index needs to break below the 200-hour moving average at 21,434. Such a move would indicate a deeper correction is underway, making longer-dated puts for October 2025 a worthwhile option. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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