The NZDUSD has been fluctuating around its 100-day moving average of 0.5959. It dropped to 0.5938 but later moved up and down during the Asian and early European sessions without a clear trend.

Current Market Dynamics

Recently, the price has risen, moving away from the moving average, which suggests that buyers may continue pushing prices higher. The next resistance level is last week’s peak of about 0.5979, followed by the August high at 0.5995. Additional targets to watch are 0.6031 and 0.6059. For a consistent upward trend, the price must stay above the 100-day moving average of 0.5959. Holding this level supports a positive outlook and may lead to further gains. If the price drops below this average, it could slow momentum and strengthen sellers. The 100-day moving average at 0.5959 is crucial for NZDUSD. The recent move above this level offers buyers a reason to aim higher in the coming days. For derivatives traders, staying above this line supports bullish strategies. For those expecting a price increase, buying call options near the 0.5979 and 0.5995 levels could be a smart move. A rise above these targets would likely speed up the upward trend and boost the options’ value. This strategy lets traders benefit from potential gains while managing their risk.

Potential Market Obstacles

However, there are challenges ahead for the Kiwi dollar that could limit this rally. New Zealand’s latest quarterly inflation report from August 2025 showed a drop to 3.1%. This may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to pause its rate hikes. Coupled with a recent 2.5% drop in global dairy prices, this could restrict how high the pair can go. On the other hand, the US dollar remains strong, thanks to a better-than-expected jobs report for August released earlier this month. This keeps the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path, making it harder to reach the 0.6059 target. So, traders who believe the rally will lose steam before hitting higher targets might consider selling a call spread. If the price cannot hold above 0.5959, the bullish outlook would be challenged. A strong break below this moving average would indicate that sellers are regaining control, making buying put options an appealing strategy. We recall this pattern from the broader downtrend in 2024, where failures at key moving averages often led to further declines. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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