US flash S&P Global PMI data for February is due on Friday at 14:45 GMT. January’s Composite PMI was 53, and February is expected to increase as both manufacturing and services output rise.
The flash Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 52.6, up from 52.4 in January. The flash Services PMI is forecast at 53, up from 52.7. Services make up about two-thirds of the US economy.
Technical Levels To Watch
EUR/USD was last near 1.1765 and is trading close to support at 1.1766. The 20-day EMA sits at 1.1818, and price is below it. The 14-day RSI is 45 after dropping from above 70.
If EUR/USD closes above the 20-day EMA, it could move toward the 11 February high at 1.1927. If it remains below the EMA, focus may shift to the 22 January low at 1.1670.
The Services PMI is a monthly, survey-based measure of activity in the US services sector. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It can also give early clues about GDP, industrial output, jobs, and inflation.
The latest US Services PMI came in stronger than expected, suggesting the largest part of the economy is still expanding at a solid pace. This immediately boosted the US Dollar and pushed EUR/USD below the key 1.1766 support level. Markets are reading this as another sign the Federal Reserve has little reason to consider rate cuts soon.
Trading Implications And Strategy
This strong services report, along with slightly higher core inflation in January 2026, supports the view that US interest rates may stay high. In 2025, the Federal Reserve stayed hawkish for much of the year due to similar resilience in the data. This policy gap could widen further, especially as the European Central Bank has hinted at possible easing due to weak industry in Germany.
For traders, this may increase the appeal of strategies that benefit from a stronger dollar or a weaker euro. With support clearly broken, buying EUR/USD put options to target the 22 January low at 1.1670 could be a workable approach in the weeks ahead. Implied volatility may tick up after this release, which could also make option-selling strategies—such as covered calls on euro-long positions—more attractive for those seeking income.
A similar pattern appeared in mid-2023, when strong services data kept the dollar supported even as other areas cooled. That period led to a steady grind lower in some currency pairs, rather than a sharp drop. Because of that, traders may prefer defined-risk approaches like bear put spreads on EUR/USD, which can profit from a gradual move down while limiting downside risk.
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