The Redbook Index in the United States dropped from 5.2% to 4.5% year-on-year.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jun 24, 2025
    The United States Redbook Index recently showed a year-on-year decline, dropping from 5.2% to 4.5% as of June 20th. This index tracks the weekly sales performance of general merchandise retailers. The EUR/USD pair is holding its ground near a 2025 high of 1.1640, bolstered by optimism about a truce in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the US Dollar faces pressure from Powell’s testimony in Congress. The USD/JPY pair has decreased about 300 pips from its weekly high, and further downward movement may follow if it falls below 144.50.

    Gold And Market Movements

    Gold prices remain stable around $3,310 as traders react to a reduction in Middle East tensions. There were brief dips below $3,300, triggered by comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Fears about Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz have resurfaced due to escalating conflicts with Israel, impacting sentiment in the oil market. This passage in the Persian Gulf is crucial for global oil shipments. Traders are now speculating that the altcoin season may be coming to an end, shifting focus back to the top three cryptocurrencies. Many altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin recently, a common trend during market cycles when money moves from Bitcoin to alternative tokens.

    Currency And Commodity Trends

    The decline in the US Redbook Index, from 5.2% to 4.5%, suggests a cooling in general merchandise retail sales. This indicator reflects a week-to-week survey of larger retail chains and tends to align with consumer sentiment. A slowdown here can signal changes in consumer spending before they’re reflected in other data, indicating possible caution among buyers. This could lead to adjustments in interest rate expectations. In currency movements, the EUR/USD pair is near its yearly high of 1.1640. Optimism related to the Middle East is limiting safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. Powell’s remarks to lawmakers provided no fresh insights or signals of aggressive tightening, contributing to the euro’s stability. As long as European data remains strong, the euro’s gains may hold, although energy supply dynamics and upcoming inflation reports should be monitored. The USD/JPY’s fall of 300 pips from recent highs suggests some rebalancing, possibly due to lower US yields ahead of next week’s inflation data from Tokyo. A drop below 144.50 could lead to further declines, given that this level has historically acted as a support zone. Breaks below these key levels often gain momentum, especially if bond traders perceive the Fed’s tightening cycle as complete. In commodities, gold has remained above $3,300, with only brief dips occurring due to Powell’s comments. These short pullbacks indicate a strong support base, likely maintained by geopolitical hedging and general uncertainty surrounding potential conflicts in the Middle East. While de-escalation may temporarily reduce risks, gold’s upside potential could persist if inflation rates stall or rise again. In the oil market, fresh concerns have emerged regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passage sees over 20% of the world’s seaborne crude passing through, and even verbal tensions with Iran can cause significant reactions in commodities. Stability in this corridor is crucial for transport costs and supply reliability. Past overreactions have occurred, but in today’s tense risk environment, any disruptions could quickly alarm shipping insurers, impact futures, and destabilize inventories. In digital assets, the focus is shifting back to the largest cryptocurrencies. Altcoins have significantly lagged behind Bitcoin lately. This movement often follows the end of speculative trends when liquidity moves away from smaller tokens. Shifts back to Bitcoin and Ethereum typically signify a consolidation phase, as investors seek safety in assets with greater infrastructure and availability. Volume in smaller tokens remains uneven, so any further downturns warrant close monitoring concerning leverage and funding costs. In the near term, staying alert to developments in debt markets and geopolitical events will be important, especially as these factors influence interest rates, FX carry trades, and overall risk appetite across major asset classes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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