The exchange rates for USD/RUB and EUR/RUB are not mainly affected by the market because sanctions hinder the Rouble’s link to basic economic factors. Still, long-term issues like energy sanctions and falling export earnings suggest that the Rouble will slowly lose value. According to an FX analyst at Commerzbank, stress in the local financial market will also contribute to this decline. Economic stress indicators are on the rise, with the economy slowing down. There is a gap between a recovering services sector and a shrinking manufacturing sector. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 in October due to fewer new orders and weak domestic demand. While some expect a recovery, Russia’s growth rate is predicted to stay around 1%.

Outlook for Russian GDP Growth

The think tank CMASF has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.8-0.9%. This is due to the negative effects of strict monetary policy. The central bank faces a dilemma: if it eases monetary policy, inflation could rise; if it keeps a tight policy, economic recovery might be stifled. Coupled with existing economic weaknesses and ongoing sanctions, a weaker Rouble is expected. USD/RUB and EUR/RUB rates are predicted to rise steadily through 2026 and 2027. The underlying weaknesses in the Russian economy are becoming clearer, hinting at a steady decline of the Rouble. Although the currency has been somewhat shielded from market forces, sanctions and declining export earnings are now increasing pressure on it. These factors point to a weaker Rouble in the near future. We are witnessing obvious signs of economic stress. The latest Manufacturing PMI reading for November is 47.8, indicating continued contraction and a drop in new orders and domestic demand. This data supports the idea that the economy is cooling, despite official growth forecasts.

Impact of Energy Export Revenues

The financial pressure on the country is significant. Recent data from the Ministry of Finance shows that energy export revenues for the third quarter of 2025 fell by more than 18% compared to the previous year. This drop is largely due to stricter sanctions and a persistent discount on Urals crude, trading over $25 lower than Brent oil. This decline in income weakens the Rouble’s value. Given this situation, we should consider preparing for a higher USD/RUB exchange rate. Buying USD/RUB call options with expirations in the first and second quarters of 2026 could be a good way to profit from expected depreciation while limiting risk. This strategy aims to take advantage of a gradual upward trend in this currency pair. For a more cautious approach, a bull call spread on USD/RUB could be a smart move. This involves buying a call option and selling another call at a higher strike price to lower the initial cost. This strategy fits a scenario of steady, not explosive, Rouble weakening. We’ve seen similar dynamics before, particularly between 2014 and 2016. During that time, sanctions and a sharp drop in oil prices led to a significant and prolonged decline in the Rouble’s value. The current conditions, featuring structural revenue shortfalls, remind us of that period. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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