The S&P 500 is holding strong because there are no major negative factors affecting it. Recent job data is positive, showing lower wage growth, which is good for the market. In the short term, risks include possible interest rate hikes, but these would need a significant CPI report to occur. The Federal Reserve’s current position suggests that the market will likely continue to rise after any temporary dips. Two key issues are on the horizon: tariff negotiations and the upcoming US CPI data. Trade deals should be finalized by the August 1st deadline. The CPI numbers will be critical in keeping the current trend, with lower inflation being preferred. Technical analysis shows that the S&P 500 is consistently reaching all-time highs. Buyers have a good setup near previous peaks, while sellers may aim for a drop to 6,000. The 4-hour chart shows an upward trendline, presenting buying chances for potential new highs, while sellers are watching for a drop to 5,800. On the 1-hour chart, a minor upward trendline supports positive momentum. Buyers might push for new highs, while sellers will look for declines to 6,236 and then to 6,160. Key events for this week include tariff discussions and US Jobless Claims data. This situation can be viewed in two ways: one that shows a steady upward movement in the index and another that points out emerging volatility—mostly minor, but sometimes significant. The data showing strong job growth, with wages rising at a slower pace, keeps the market steady. Lower inflation without job losses suggests a smoother path for interest rates. Powell’s position indicates no rush to tighten policies, meaning any downward trends are likely to be brief and allow for recovery. Current dips don’t indicate major issues but rather an opportunity that buyers often embrace. However, the upcoming CPI report is an important marker. If inflation data rises sharply, it could change expectations, leading to renewed concerns about interest rates and adjustments in pricing. The ongoing tariff negotiations could also cause significant movements. If no agreement is reached by the August deadline, it will quickly impact equity pricing. Treasuries would likely strengthen and risk sensitivity would increase. Regarding levels, the previous high matters more than just symbolically. It’s where significant positions are set to be re-established. Short-term buyers have found support in specific areas defined by minor trendlines, with momentum building in those patterns. The 4-hour structure shows a smooth incline with strong support bounces. This is a textbook route to another high unless unexpected economic events occur midweek. The 5,800 level is a crucial point to watch. If prices drop below this level quickly, especially during low liquidity times, it could trigger sell-offs. Until then, pullbacks are being met with swift buying. For sellers to gain ground, they need to push through overlapping technical zones that have been holding. On the 1-hour chart, there is a weaker but relevant support line that might face pressure if traders hedge against CPI. Renewed selling does not require a major collapse; even a slight drop from recent highs to the 6,236 and 6,160 ranges could cool the buying activity. However, bearish movements have been weak so far, though this could change with a negative jobless claims report. As the week progresses, the focus is on two key events. The market’s reaction to these events—trade headlines and the inflation numbers—will be important and won’t fade quickly. Pay close attention to the data around these events. Act based on the numbers rather than headlines, and keep an eye on volume during the initial reactions. Past experiences have shown that there can be misdirections, especially around CPI adjustments. Stay vigilant about changes in volatility metrics, particularly in pre-market futures and implied skew. These indicators, more than news, will reveal where potential blind spots may be forming.

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