The USD/CHF pair keeps declining, dropping below 0.8250 and losing almost 1%. It now trades at 0.8203, hitting a two-week low. The Swiss Franc has strengthened due to tariff threats from the US aimed at the EU and Apple’s iPhones made abroad. The USD/CHF has broken through a bearish flag pattern, which suggests it might test the year-to-date low of 0.8038. The pair’s momentum points to a possible further drop, with the Relative Strength Index remaining in bearish territory.

Potential Targets and Shifts

For the USD/CHF to reach the year-to-date low, it needs to fall below 0.8200. This could expose May’s low at 0.8184, with further targets at 0.8100 and 0.8050. To change direction and move upward, buyers need to surpass the peak from May 22 at 0.8396, aiming for 0.8350 and 0.8400. A table shows that the Swiss Franc has performed well against the US Dollar compared to other major currencies this week. The heat map illustrates percentage changes among these currencies, highlighting the strength of the Swiss Franc. We are seeing a strong interest in the Swiss Franc, leading the USD/CHF pair to fall below 0.8250 for the first time in two weeks, reaching as low as 0.8203. This is not just minor movement; the pairing has lost nearly 1% due to fresh worries in the United States about trade measures targeting the EU, particularly regarding offshore-assembled Apple iPhones. Technically, the currency pair has broken a bearish flag pattern. For those unfamiliar with chart patterns, this suggests a further decline rather than just a quick shakeout. Since the Relative Strength Index is still pointing downward, selling pressure is likely to continue in the short term. This trend is based on signals traders recognize, indicating a continuation of the current trend. At the 0.8200 mark and below, things get more interesting. May’s low is at 0.8184, and below that, there’s a potential path to 0.8100 and then to 0.8050. The year’s low at 0.8038 is still a bit away, but is now closer after breaking near-term support. These levels can act as potential pause points and indicators of sentiment shifts.

Reversal Considerations

For an upward reversal to happen, buying interest needs to decisively overcome the late May high of 0.8396. If not, any rallies may be unreliable. To reach 0.8350 and beyond, there is significant resistance to overcome based on failed attempts and positioning shifts from recent weeks. When we look at the relative strength of G10 currencies, the Swiss Franc remains resilient, especially against the US Dollar. The weekly movements shown in our heat map indicate the Franc’s appreciation, which highlights that the Dollar’s decline isn’t the only factor. Traders are moving towards what is seen as a lower-risk currency amid trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Given this situation, there are several actionable strategies. Sellers dominate below 0.8200. Until a catalyst or a significant volume shift disrupts the current pattern, short setups remain justified, especially with momentum oscillators in oversold territory. Stops should consider recent peaks near 0.8260 for effective risk management. We’re monitoring the trend toward the 0.8100 – 0.8050 range, which might be reached sooner than expected if volatility continues. For those looking to reassess directional bias, 0.8184 is a key benchmark. Any upward movements that fail to surpass the May high are likely to be weak, setting the stage for new selling opportunities. It’s important to manage exposure closely around critical inter-day levels. Unforeseen US policy changes or Fed commentary could sway the market, but currently, the risk-reward structure leans south. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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