The CFTC reports that Oil Non-Commercial Net Positions in the United States have fallen from 234.7K to 209.4K. This indicates a shift in how the market feels about oil investments. EUR/USD is struggling to gain traction, remaining below the 1.1700 level. This currency pair is impacted by reduced hopes for a trade deal between the EU and the US, and an increase in demand for the US Dollar.

Meme Coins on the Rise

Meme coins like Bonk, Dogwifhat, and Floki are seeing gains as Bitcoin reaches new highs. As Bitcoin continues to recover, these coins are pushing against major resistance levels. Gold is testing two-week highs near $3,360 per troy ounce, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing trade tensions. GBP/USD has dropped below 1.3500, nearing its lowest point in three weeks. Weak UK GDP data is putting pressure on the British pound, while the US Dollar gains strength from safe-haven flows. Next week, markets expect a wave of CPI data and attention on China’s GDP amid trade uncertainties. Weak growth in China may lead to calls for more stimulus, raising broader market concerns.

Changes in the Oil Market

The decline in oil net positions, from 234.7K to 209.4K as reported by the CFTC, shows that large speculators are becoming less optimistic about long bets on crude oil. This change in sentiment often signals shifts in price expectations. For those monitoring oil-linked derivatives, this decline in bullish positions suggests that momentum from speculative investments may be slowing. Shorter-duration trades could become more appealing than long-term investments, especially if there is no clear supply disruption. In currency markets, the euro’s inability to rise above 1.1700 may test any remaining bullish confidence in EUR/USD. With EU-US diplomatic efforts stalling, risk appetite is falling, making the dollar more attractive to traders seeking stability. As buyers move back into USD, there could be increased volatility for euro-related currency pairs. It may be prudent to prepare for potential downside risks, especially if momentum drives the pair toward technical levels seen in early summer. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s rise to new highs is impacting parts of the crypto market, particularly meme coins. As Bitcoin surges, assets like Bonk, Dogwifhat, and Floki are seeing a boost. Their approach to historical resistance levels creates opportunities for short-term trading if volume continues to rise. For those involved in options trading, implied volatility is expected to remain high. Watch for increased demand for out-of-the-money calls. Gold prices are drawing investor interest once again, approaching $3,360, driven by demand from risk-averse investors. Global trade tensions and low real yields make gold an attractive option for those seeking to hedge against volatility. For investors in metals futures or options, this upward movement may lead to increasing interest in short-term call strategies, particularly if bond market worries return. A further drop in GBP/USD below 1.3500 highlights the British pound’s sensitivity to UK data. Weak GDP figures have weighed on the currency, while the US Dollar remains strong as capital seeks out stability. Sterling options may begin to factor in the need for more downside protection. Monitoring changes in interest rate futures will help assess how far the market believes this weakness may extend. Expect volatile trading before the Bank of England’s comments. Looking ahead, a series of CPI releases—especially from the US and eurozone—are on the horizon. Fresh GDP data from China may also affect expectations for commodities and currencies tied to Asia. If China’s growth data disappoints, discussions about policy responses are likely to intensify, impacting short-term views on industrial metals and influencing credit spreads and emerging market currencies. Adjusting exposure, especially in trades related to consumption-driven sectors, might be wise. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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