The USD continued to rise modestly today. It stayed the same against the JPY and had slight gains against other major currencies. Here’s how it performed: up 0.05% against the GBP, 0.12% against the CAD, and 0.21% against both the EUR and AUD. The biggest gain was 0.25% against the NZD. Today’s economic news includes the advanced goods trade balance data, expected at -$98.20 billion, along with updates on wholesale and retail inventories for June. Wholesale inventories dropped by 0.3%, while retail inventories increased by 0.2%. We also anticipate the release of Case Shiller housing prices, US consumer confidence, and JOLTS job openings data.

Company Earnings and Stock Records

Many companies shared their earnings today, with most surpassing expectations. Boeing reported an EPS of -$1.24 with revenue of $22.75 billion, while PayPal had an EPS of $1.40 and revenue of $8.29 billion. The US stock indices closed at all-time highs, with significant increases in the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ. US debt market yields dipped slightly after a rise yesterday. In other markets, crude oil rose by 0.18%, and gold also went up by 0.18%. Silver fell by 0.23%, while Bitcoin increased by $518. Due to the dollar’s strong rise, we are looking for signs of a slowdown in the coming weeks. Although the dollar is stable today, July 29, 2025, the decline during the European session hints that its upward trend may be easing. It’s important to identify key technical levels; breaking these could signal a deeper pullback. Upcoming economic data will be essential for our strategy. A drop in JOLTS job openings to 7.5 million continues the cooling trend from the post-pandemic peak of over 11 million. A weaker labor market could influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions, potentially limiting the dollar’s gains.

Derivatives Strategy

We are also cautious about the consumer confidence data. Although a rise to 95 is expected, this is still below July of last year’s 103.0 reading, suggesting that consumer health may be fragile. Combined with falling monthly home prices, this creates a mixed outlook that doesn’t support unchecked dollar strength. Given this uncertainty, we suggest buying options instead of committing to futures positions. We’re looking into at-the-money EUR/USD put options that will expire in 30 to 45 days. This allows us to benefit from potential dollar strength while minimizing our risk if the trend shifts. With US stock indices at near-record highs, we expect market volatility to be low. This presents a good chance to buy affordable protection against unexpected events, such as a negative turn in US-China trade negotiations. We are considering purchasing out-of-the-money call options on the VIX index as a cost-effective hedge. Strong earnings from companies like Boeing and Royal Caribbean indicate ongoing strength in the industrial and travel sectors. To take advantage of this, we’re exploring call options on relevant sector ETFs. These positive results suggest there’s still potential for growth in these areas, even if the broader market slows down. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now