The USDCAD pair tests the 200-hour moving average after recent fluctuations

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jul 7, 2025
    The USDCAD pair bounced back from last week’s low, stopping just above the 2025 low and near the June 17 swing low at 1.3554. This recovery pushed the pair toward the 100-hour moving average around 1.3613. Initially, the pair faced resistance during the Asian session but then broke through. Buyers gained strength, driving the price above the 200-hour moving average in the early European session. The upward momentum continued, reaching the 50% midpoint of June’s decline at 1.3676, where sellers appeared near the swing area low between 1.36858 and 1.36923. As sellers took hold, over the last few hours, the price returned to the 200-hour moving average at 1.36401. This moving average is crucial for predicting future price movements. If the price falls below the 200 MA at 1.3640, it might weaken the bullish outlook and lead back to the 100-hour moving average at 1.36128. Support levels are located at 1.3640 (200-hour MA) and 1.36128 (100-hour MA), while resistance levels can be found at 1.3647 (200-hour MA), 1.36763 (50%), and the swing area between 1.3685 to 1.3692. In summary, the USDCAD currency pair saw a short-term rally after bouncing from last week’s low and testing key support levels. It rose from near the 2025 low and paused around 1.3554. The price climbed, breaking its 100-hour moving average at 1.3613, often seen as a signal for short-term direction. Once buyers gained control and surpassed the 100-hour average, the pair surged past the critical 200-hour moving average, important for determining medium-term direction. The rally continued up to 1.3676, but sellers stepped in near the swing zone between 1.36858 and 1.36923, a barrier that had previously held back price advances. After reaching that level, the rally faded, and sellers pushed the price back toward 1.3640, the 200-hour moving average. This moving average now acts as a balance point for current market sentiment. The price’s behavior around this level will signal the next move. If the price drops below 1.3640, it would be disappointing and could break the recent upward trend, paving the way back toward the 100-hour average at 1.36128. This level has previously acted as support, and its ability to hold against selling pressure will determine whether the bounce was temporary or the start of a larger movement. Conversely, if the price stays above 1.3640 and gains strength, attention will shift to higher resistance levels—first at 1.3647, then the midpoint at 1.36763. Any push toward these levels could lead to resistance in the swing zone above 1.3685, a critical area that has acted as a barrier before. Failing to hold within that range might trigger a faster market adjustment. What we’re monitoring in this situation is not only the levels themselves but also how the price interacts with them. Are buyers consistent? Is selling pressure weakening, or are sellers just waiting in the upper range? These answers will start to emerge over the following sessions, depending on whether the price moves down or up. In the near term, with uncertainty on both sides, we might see opportunities as the price fluctuates between these technical markers. Acting precisely, especially near the 200- and 100-hour moving averages, will be more critical than trying to predict the direction. The closer the structure, the clearer the reaction levels become. This may be where the real advantage lies for attentive observers.

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