The USDCHF has hit new daily and weekly lows, with sellers gaining strength after not being able to exceed last Thursday’s peak. The pair fell below the 200-hour moving average at 0.80724 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.80678, confirming seller dominance. The price recently dropped below the five-day low and the 50% midpoint of the July 23 decline, now trading at 0.80387, which suggests a bearish outlook. The next key level to watch is 0.80467; if the price rises above this, it could shift to a neutral or bullish view in the short term.

Stock Indices Movement

Stock indices haven’t reached their lowest levels yet. The NASDAQ is revisiting its 200-hour moving average at 21129.67, with a current price of 21092.53. To keep sellers at bay, the price needs to rise above this moving average. Staying below it may strengthen the sellers’ position. The S&P index is also rebounding, retesting its 100-hour moving average at 6382.92, with the current price at 6381.93. It is crucial for the price to stay above the 100-hour moving average to avoid boosting seller activity. With the ongoing selling in the USD/CHF, this presents a good opportunity for bearish strategies. The pair has fallen below several moving averages and key support levels around 0.8043, indicating that sellers are in charge right now. This trend is supported by the more hawkish stance of the Swiss National Bank compared to the US Federal Reserve. The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released on August 14, 2025, showed a slight dip in inflation to 2.8%, raising speculation that the Fed will keep rates steady for the rest of the year. In contrast, SNB officials expressed ongoing concerns about domestic prices, highlighting a clear policy split. This situation explains why the pair is testing levels not observed since the significant market changes in 2015.

Trading Strategies

For traders, it’s advisable to maintain short positions or consider buying put options on USD/CHF as long as the price remains below the 0.80467 pivot point. This point serves as a key level for the ongoing bearish trend. A continued decline could reach the psychological 0.8000 level in the next few weeks. As for equities, the current uptick in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 appears to be more of a resistance test than a genuine turnaround from the recent downtrend. We need to see if prices can securely move back above their respective moving averages: 21129 for the NASDAQ and 6382 for the S&P. If they fail to do this, it’s likely that sellers will come back into play. This cautious market sentiment is reasonable, especially after the weaker-than-expected US jobs report from early August, which showed a number below 180,000. Along with mixed guidance from major tech companies during late July’s earnings season, there are valid concerns about slowing economic growth. Thus, these technical resistance levels are quite significant. Until the indices can regain those critical moving averages, it’s wise to remain cautious or use this rally to prepare for further downside. Traders might consider buying at-the-money puts on index ETFs or starting small short futures positions. A clear breakout and hold above those moving averages would signal the need to quickly shift away from a bearish outlook. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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