The USDCHF currency pair recently tested an important level at 0.78714, reaching a low of 0.7874 before bouncing back to 0.7885. This level is crucial because if it breaks below, it will be the lowest point since 2011, creating a new yearly low. To keep the positive sentiment, buyers need the price to stay above 0.78714. If it remains above this point, there is a chance for a rebound. However, if it dips below, it will reinforce the downward trend and indicate a further price decline.

Potential For Upward Momentum

For an upward movement, breaking above the July 3 low would be a good sign. Sellers are keeping an eye on the range between 0.79104 and 0.79209. If the price goes above this area, it could lead to short covering, shifting momentum in favor of buyers. We are observing the USDCHF test a key support level at 0.78714, which has held since early July 2025. A break here would be significant, taking us back to prices not seen since the Swiss National Bank actively intervened in the currency market over ten years ago. This pressure on the dollar follows last month’s US jobs report, which showed hiring in August 2025 was slightly lower than expected. For traders looking for further downside, buying put options with a strike price below 0.7870 is a straightforward strategy with clear risk. This bearish outlook is backed by the Swiss National Bank’s recent hawkish stance, as it is focused on controlling inflation, which recent data shows is still around 2.1%. Breaking the July low could easily push the pair toward the 0.7800 psychological level. On the flip side, if we think this long-term support will hold, buying call options is a direct way to take advantage of a potential rebound. The key trigger for a reversal would be a move back above the 0.79209 resistance zone. This would indicate that the dollar’s weakness might be overstretched, causing those with short positions to buy back, which could fuel the rally.

Trading Strategy Approaches

Since the pair is at such a crucial point, a sharp move in either direction is likely in the coming weeks. Traders unsure about which way it will go but confident in rising volatility can use a long straddle strategy. This involves buying both a put and a call option. This positioning profits from a significant price movement, effectively betting on a breakout, regardless of the direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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