The USDJPY has surpassed the 38.2% retracement level of its 2025 trading range, which stretches from the January 10 high to the April 22 low, with the retracement set at 147.135. The pair hit a peak of 147.515, marking its third attempt to stay above this level since April’s low. Previous attempts on May 12 and June 23 were unsuccessful, but this new movement offers buyers a fresh chance. It’s crucial to stay above 147.135 for positive momentum. If this holds, the next targets include 148.019, the June high, and 148.647, the May high. The May high is significant, part of a swing area spanning from 148.56 to 148.724.

Possible Bullish Breakout

The market seems ready for a possible bullish breakout as it tests the 38.2% retracement level again. It’s still unclear if buyers can keep the momentum above this point. The key support level for a bullish outlook is 147.135. Maintaining this position is essential for continuing upward movement. Recent activity in USDJPY shows a technical retest of a reliable retracement point in this year’s wider price structure. With the pair crossing the 38.2% retracement, it enters an area that sellers have defended before, showing resistance on two occasions in May and June. This current push to 147.515 not only clears that barrier but also presents a chance to reach resistance levels around the spring and early summer highs. The 147.135 retracement is important because it marks a shift from a consolidative trend to a more directional one. For now, prices staying above this level encourage long positions, as long as this area is not given up soon. The next key space to watch is around 148.019, followed by 148.647. These levels are significant, as the last one falls within a higher timeframe rejection zone, making moves towards it very meaningful.

Strategic Positioning

We believe that if the pair continues to respect this newly established structure, it signals a tilt towards more upside. However, this view depends on the market decisively maintaining action above 147.135 and doing so for more than just a single day. Dropping below this threshold could reverse the progress buyers have made since April. For those with leveraged positions, this level offers a clear trigger: if defended, risk can be better balanced against recent lows, but if broken decisively, bullish momentum could falter. The behavior around the 147.515 high also needs attention. This level has become a frequent battleground. Every effort to push above it has attracted interest from both buyers and sellers, increasing liquidity but also volatility. It’s important to see if there will be continued follow-through in the coming sessions, especially as we approach the upper trading areas from May. These are not just random highs; they represent serious responses from sellers who were strong enough to reverse the market direction temporarily. Traders should consider whether those selling pressures are still present or have dissipated. What we learn from these past rejections is significant: any upward breach without hesitation means more than just technical advancement—it alters trader expectations too. Once expectations change, implied volatility shifts, and hedges get adjusted. So, holding here is not just about maintaining a trend. It’s about making sure traders stay aligned with their positions, which is even more critical when sentiment has flipped multiple times. In the short term, our focus is on whether the pair can maintain higher levels above the retracement mark. A stable sideways movement with small pullbacks would indicate that buying interest is consistently absorbed. This kind of price action would confirm strength, rather than just spikes followed by quick drops, which would complicate risk management. Currently, there hasn’t been such a reversal, but the memory of two recent failures is still vivid. How the price reacts around 148.00 and nearby levels will be crucial—buyers need to trigger stops to reach new highs. Otherwise, we might return to familiar, choppy ranges that aren’t ideal for strategic planning. For now, let the 147.135 zone be our battleground, and assess each session based on its ability to remain above this point. This isn’t the moment for uncertainty; it’s about whether levels hold or are broken. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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