The GDXJ tracks an index of smaller global junior gold and silver mining companies. Recent analysis shows that the ETF is showing strong upward trends. It has risen significantly from a low of $17.94, indicating potential for more growth. On the monthly Elliott Wave chart, the ETF completed a grand super cycle wave at $17.94 and then began to rise. From this low, wave (I) peaked at $52.50, followed by a drop to $19.52, and then continued to climb in wave (III). Currently, wave I has reached $65.95, and the ETF is expected to keep growing as long as certain key levels hold.

Daily Elliott Wave Chart

The daily Elliott Wave chart shows that wave II ended at $26.10, with wave III developing in a five-wave structure. The ETF is rising again in wave ((3)), after wave ((1)) peaked at $55.58 and wave ((2)) pulled back to $41.85. If the $26.10 pivot low stays secure, we can expect more gains. Forex trading carries significant risks, and it’s important to think about your investment goals and risk tolerance. The analysis from Elliottwave-forecast.com is meant for informational use; understanding market risks is essential. Always consider seeking advice from independent financial advisors if you are unsure. Given the current technical outlook, we see a bullish trend in the GDXJ, suggesting an opportunity for upward movement in the upcoming weeks. For traders dealing in derivatives, this could mean buying call options or setting up bull call spreads with October and November 2025 expirations to take advantage of the expected price increase. The analysis indicates we are in a strong upward wave, and these strategies provide a defined-risk way to engage.

Macroeconomic Environment

This technical perspective is backed by the current macroeconomic situation. Gold prices have recently surged above $2,550 per ounce, partly due to the August 2025 US inflation report, which was reported at a higher-than-expected 3.8%. Ongoing inflation, along with the Federal Reserve hinting at a pause in interest rate hikes, creates a favorable climate for precious metals and the companies that mine them. The analysis points out that $26.10 is a crucial short-term pivot for GDXJ. All derivative strategies should use this price level as an important risk management reference. If prices fall below this support, it could invalidate the current upward wave pattern, requiring a quick reassessment of any bullish positions. Looking back, the current market structure is similar to the time after the lows in 2016, which led to a major rally in junior miners. We are also noticing that implied volatility on GDXJ options has been rising, showing market expectations of a significant price shift. In this environment, strategies like selling cash-secured puts or bull put spreads could be appealing, as traders can earn higher premiums while maintaining a bullish outlook. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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