The White House will soon announce President Trump’s pick of Stephen Miran as a temporary Federal Reserve Board member. He will take over Adriana Kugler’s position until January 31, 2026. Currently, Miran is the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, a role he has held since March 2025 after Senate confirmation. Miran earned a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and a B.A. from Boston University. His work experience includes positions as a senior strategist, senior fellow, and senior advisor at the U.S. Treasury. He played a key role during the pandemic, helping with emergency financial support, and received an award for his efforts.

Miran’s Research Interests

Miran’s research looks at household savings, tariffs, and global monetary trends. He believes the U.S. dollar is overvalued and supports using tariffs to improve trade balances. He also promotes deregulation to reduce business costs and combat inflation by increasing supply. In terms of trade policy, Miran supports protective measures to fix trade imbalances. He has called for more accountability within the Federal Reserve and raised concerns about its independence. Miran also states that tariffs have only a minor effect on inflation, arguing that any price changes would be short-term. Miran’s nomination brings a significant change to monetary policy. His short-term role until January 2026 raises the possibility of altering traditional Fed approaches. We must consider a board member who views deregulation and trade policies as key strategies against inflation. Miran’s claim that tariffs won’t lead to lasting inflation contradicts much market belief, which could create tension. With the core CPI data from July 2025 showing inflation at 3.1%, his views will be immediately challenged. This points to the need for careful observation of derivatives that protect against inflation, as the market may bet against his theory and expect higher prices.

Monetary Policy Implications

Miran’s appointment might increase interest rate volatility. The MOVE Index, a measure of Treasury market volatility, has risen to 115 this past month, reflecting uncertainty about future Fed actions. Options on Treasury futures could gain value as traders prepare for a wider range of outcomes in upcoming FOMC meetings. The U.S. dollar faces a complicated outlook that requires careful navigation. While tariffs are usually positive for the dollar, Miran has voiced concerns about its overvaluation. This contradiction makes currency options, which can profit from significant movements, appealing for currency pairs like EUR/USD. We need to closely monitor Fed communications for signs of internal disagreements. Miran’s praise for Governor Waller hints at a possible alliance, but his unique views may clash with more traditional board members. As a result, the predictability of Fed statements could diminish, making options that expire around FOMC meeting dates especially useful for trading expected volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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