The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is about to release a preliminary revision of U.S. labor market data for the year ending in March 2025. Many expect a downward adjustment, suggesting that hiring figures might be overestimated by 700,000 to 800,000 jobs. If this is accurate, it would indicate that the average monthly job growth last year was around 100,000, not the 165,000 that was previously reported. Over the summer, from June to August, the average monthly gain dropped to just 29,000 jobs. This revision is based on new information from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which aims to clarify the accuracy of labor market data.

Job Revision Impact

Last year, a similar adjustment showed that there were 818,000 fewer jobs than reported up to March 2024, highlighting issues in the labor market. The current revision might affect how people view interest rate cuts, especially since nearly three cuts have already been anticipated, raising questions about what actions might be taken before new inflation data comes out this week. This jobs revision is likely to reveal that the U.S. labor market is weaker than previously believed. The preliminary estimates could show a loss of up to 800,000 jobs by March 2025, significantly altering the previous narrative. It implies that the average job growth for last year was about 100,000, rather than the reported 165,000. This slowdown doesn’t happen in isolation; it adds to existing data. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in August 2025, and job openings reported in the JOLTS survey have fallen below 8 million. A significant downward revision today would confirm that the strength of the labor market was overestimated. We saw similar patterns when last year’s data was revised. The adjustment through March 2024 revealed 818,000 fewer jobs, serving as an early indicator of emerging weaknesses. If confirmed, this year’s revision suggests that such weaknesses are becoming a trend rather than an isolated instance.

Implications for Traders and the Fed

For traders in derivatives, this scenario makes a case for a more cautious Federal Reserve stance. Since the market is already anticipating nearly three rate cuts, using options on SOFR futures could be a direct way to prepare for lower interest rates. This allows traders to benefit if the Fed ends up cutting rates more than expected. The immediate focus will be on the chance of a larger rate cut sooner rather than later. This revision, before the crucial CPI inflation data on Thursday, could lead the market to favor a 50 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting. Thus, keeping an eye on shifts in fed funds futures pricing will be crucial throughout the day. Given the potential for a significant market reaction, volatility could rise. Purchasing call options on the VIX index may provide a cost-effective hedge against sudden movements following today’s data or Thursday’s inflation report. This strategy can help protect a portfolio from uncertainties regarding the Fed’s future actions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now