### Speaking Engagements Throughout the Day There are several speaking events today. At 08:00 GMT, ECB’s Escriva will talk, followed by BoE’s Pill at 12:30 GMT. Then, both ECB’s Lane and Fed’s Williams will speak at 13:45 GMT. At 14:00 GMT, Fed’s Musalem will speak, followed by ECB’s Nagel at 16:00 GMT. Later, at 16:00 GMT, Fed’s Miran, Hammack, and Barkin will take the stage. Even though Miran has a dovish view, his impact is often seen as minimal. After that, BoC’s Rogers will speak at 17:15 GMT, followed by BoE’s Bailey at 18:00 GMT. The day’s speeches will wrap up with BoC’s Kozicki at 19:45 GMT. With no major data today, September 22nd, 2025, all eyes are on the central bank speakers for guidance. Last week’s Federal Reserve meeting showed a hawkish dot plot, leading to increased volatility. The key question is whether upcoming data will validate this tough Fed stance. ### Market Pricing and Uncertainty The market shows more uncertainty, as seen with the VIX index remaining around 18 after spiking from 14 following the FOMC meeting. We’ll be watching Fed speakers like Williams and the hawkish Musalem to see if they emphasize the “higher for longer” message. Any shift from this hawkish tone could cause sharp, short-term movements in interest rate futures. Tomorrow’s US PMI data is the first big test for the Fed’s position. After the August 2025 manufacturing PMI came in at a barely expansionary 50.4, a drop below 50 would challenge the idea of a strong economy and could lead to pricing in of rate cuts. This makes options that benefit from increased volatility, like straddles on the SPX, an appealing strategy before the release. On Thursday, we’ll have US Jobless Claims, which have remained low, around 215,000 for the past month. This tight labor market has been key for the Fed’s ability to maintain high rates. We saw a similar situation in 2023, where a strong job market allowed the Fed to keep raising rates, even as other areas of the economy cooled. With central bank discussions followed by important data points, traders should think about positions that could benefit from a significant move in either direction. Short-dated options on major indices or currency pairs like EUR/USD will be sensitive to any surprises this week. Today’s speeches may keep markets stable, but positioning ahead of tomorrow’s PMI data is crucial. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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