Weekly Focus

Today looks quiet with no major events on the calendar. Market participants are waiting for next week’s US labor market data, which may keep prices steady for the next few days. In the stock market, Nvidia’s earnings report, set to come out after the US market closes, is highly anticipated. Tomorrow’s US Jobless Claims data will be the most significant report this week. Next week, attention will shift to labor market figures, including the NFP report, which is likely to impact market sentiment. With little scheduled until next week’s labor data, we can expect a few days of sideways price movements. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is around 13, indicating a calm market. This low volatility makes it difficult to take directional bets, but it could benefit traders who sell options using strategies like iron condors on major indices. The first big test of this quiet market will happen after today’s close when Nvidia releases its earnings. This event could create volatility not just in tech but across the S&P 500. The options market is anticipating a post-earnings move of about 8.5% for Nvidia, so having short positions on volatility leading up to this report could be very risky.

Derivatives Strategy

Our focus will quickly turn to next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. In July 2025, the report showed a slightly disappointing increase of 170,000 jobs, making the Federal Reserve more reliant on data than ever. Tomorrow’s Jobless Claims numbers, expected to be around 225,000, will be closely monitored as an early indicator for the larger report. This leads to a two-part derivatives strategy for the upcoming weeks. In the next day or two, selling premium could be effective, but it’s important to close these positions before the Nvidia earnings report or ensure they have wide break-even points. As we get closer to the NFP release, implied volatility is likely to rise, offering a chance to buy options like straddles to take advantage of a potential breakout. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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