In the European session, we’ll see inflation reports for Switzerland and the Eurozone. The annual Swiss CPI is expected to be -0.1%, down from 0.0% last month. There’s a 32% chance of a 50 basis points cut at the upcoming Swiss National Bank meeting. A lower Swiss CPI could boost hopes for a larger rate cut. In the Eurozone, the CPI is forecasted at 2.0%, down from 2.2% previously, while the Core CPI is expected to be 2.5%, down from 2.7%. There’s a 95% chance of a 25 basis points cut this week, with another cut likely by the end of the year. The European Central Bank plans to cut rates in June and will pause until at least September. In the American session, April’s US Job Openings are projected at 7.1 million, down from 7.192 million. This follows a pause in Trump’s tariffs. The report is unlikely to have much impact due to its outdated information. Key central bank speakers include BoE’s Bailey at 09:15 GMT, Fed’s Goolsbee at 16:45 GMT, Fed’s Cook at 17:00 GMT, and Fed’s Logan at 19:30 GMT. Inflation data from Switzerland and the Euro area is set to influence markets. The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to slightly dip to -0.1% year-on-year, a minor drop from last month. While this isn’t alarming, it adds fuel to the expectations of a bigger rate cut from the Swiss National Bank this month. Traders are already anticipating a one-in-three chance of a 50 basis points reduction, and a lower CPI would likely increase that probability. For the Eurozone, inflation seems to be responding to monetary tightening. The CPI is predicted to fall to 2.0% from 2.2%, while the Core CPI may drop to 2.5% from 2.7%. The market sees a 25 basis points cut from the European Central Bank as almost certain, with 95% confidence. Policymakers have indicated this move, suggesting a June reduction followed by a pause until at least fall, depending on future inflation and wage data. We see softer inflation on both fronts as a significant signal for traders. The narrowing rate difference between CHF and EUR instruments is hard to ignore, especially in interest rate markets. This week, options flows and positioning are likely to shift toward steeper easing curves. Any bond traders in neutral positions should rethink their exposure, as the 50 basis points move by the SNB seems underpriced given the risk. Turning our attention to the US, the April job openings figure is unlikely to cause much reaction. The forecast is 7.1 million, slightly below the previous 7.192 million. While it’s a minor decline, it lacks relevance for the Federal Reserve’s forward guidance. This data arises amid trade tensions from earlier this quarter—tariff threats that were later rescinded—but many believe today’s figures will only serve as background noise. What may have a greater impact are the scheduled comments from central bankers in the UK and US. Bailey speaks first in the morning, followed by Goolsbee, Cook, and Logan during the American session. Their comments are crucial now, given the sensitive positioning of short-end futures. Any deviation from prior policy statements could lead to quick market adjustments. We’ve noticed increased sensitivity in swap spreads and SOFR rate volatility since last week, which could react to unexpected changes in tone. The key takeaway: fixed income desks should be alert for any surprising dovish or hawkish comments rather than focusing on headlines that are now mostly outdated. Meanwhile, euro and Swiss franc volatility sellers might rethink their strategies if negative prints continue. For traders, it’s essential to focus on what lies ahead, rather than looking back.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now