Gold is currently trading neutrally. It looks bullish if it stays above 3,637 and bearish if it drops below 3,628.2. Right now, the GC1! futures price is at 3,627.1, down by 0.72%. The day’s price range is between 3,623.0 and 3,637.9. The XAUUSD spot price is at 3,584.145, down by 0.07%, with a range from 3,583.810 to 3,597.200. **For Bulls:** Target prices are 3,640.2, 3,648.7, and 3,654.4. These levels provide good exit points. **For Bears:** Targets include 3,620.3, 3,616.7, 3,613.2, 3,605.5, and possibly 3,595.9. Traders should look for signs of acceptance below 3,628.2 for bearish scenarios or above 3,637 for bullish ones.

Influence of Macro Drivers

Macro factors include ongoing gold purchases in China and new interest from El Salvador, which could influence long-term trends. Indian gold ETFs have seen large inflows, helping to support the market. Traders should manage risk by watching key levels like VWAP, VAH, and VAL. It’s wise to set stops just beyond these thresholds to limit potential loss. According to the TradeCompass method, it’s best to step back after hitting target prices. This analysis is for informational purposes, not financial advice. As of September 8, 2025, gold futures are in a fragile balance. The price is sitting just below the 3,628.2 level, indicating that sellers have a slight advantage. If it stays below this level in the next few days, lower targets like 3,620.3 or even around 3,600 could be in sight. On the other hand, if buyers push the price above 3,637, it could change the current weakness and revive the bullish momentum from last Friday’s breakout. This would indicate a possible retest of the recent 52-week high near 3,655.5. Strong demand underpins this bullish view, as central banks worldwide continue their trend of acquiring gold, with significant purchases recorded in the first half of 2025.

Opportunities for Derivative Traders

For derivative traders, the narrow range between 3,628 and 3,637 offers a chance to develop strategies that benefit from significant price movements. The implied volatility of gold options has been declining, making strategies like straddles or strangles appealing to capture any major price swings. However, it’s vital to wait for solid confirmation of a breakout, as false moves could incur losses. Reflecting on the trending rally from below 2,600 over the past year, the primary trend has remained strongly bullish. After such significant gains, it’s natural to see some consolidation or correction. This current pause likely reflects broader market uncertainty, particularly as U.S. inflation data has been stickier than expected into mid-2025, making the Federal Reserve’s next steps uncertain. Key macro drivers, like central bank diversification and steady ETF inflows, help support prices, indicating that dips are often buying opportunities. We noticed strong buying near high-volume levels in early September. Even if a bearish breakdown happens, traders should be ready for sharp rebounds from liquidity pools around 3,605.5 and 3,595.9. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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