The current state of Bitcoin shows it is in a holding pattern as the market waits for important US economic data. Despite this pause, there are positive growth expectations that support Bitcoin in the bigger picture. However, there is a risk for risk assets, including Bitcoin, if interest rate expectations change because of rising inflation concerns. Such changes could lead to a short-term drop in Bitcoin and stock prices, but the overall trend is likely still upward. Key upcoming economic events like the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision will significantly impact market movements, especially related to inflation. Recently, Bitcoin fell below a key trendline and is approaching the 102,127 level. This level could open up opportunities for buyers looking to push for new all-time highs, especially as it consolidates below the 106,800 resistance level. Right now, Bitcoin is squeezed between two trendlines on the 1-hour chart. Buyers are ready to push upward, aiming to break above the downward trendline for new highs. On the other hand, sellers are looking to break below the upward trendline, adding to their positions in anticipation of price declines. This situation reveals a moment of caution for speculative markets. After a strong rally, Bitcoin is now more sensitive to upcoming macroeconomic events, especially those linked to inflation and interest rates in the US. As economic indicators fluctuate, market reactions are likely to follow suit. Overall, the broader trend has been upward for the past few months, backed by confidence in long-term economic recovery and a relatively stable liquidity environment. However, short-term shifts in interest rate expectations—especially if they become more aggressive due to strong inflation data—could create pressure on risk assets. Several important events are on the horizon. The upcoming labor market report will set the tone, followed quickly by the inflation numbers and the federal rate decision. Each of these events is expected to increase volatility, and market reactions will depend on how actual figures compare to forecasts. It’s often more significant how results differ from expectations than the figures themselves. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has moved below a crucial trendline and is currently testing the 102,127 region. This level has historically seen attempts at accumulation. There is some buying activity here, but its strength is still uncertain and awaits further confirmation. Resistance remains at 106,800, preventing further price increases for now. The price has been moving within a narrower range, creating a compression pattern that may soon change. Intraday charts suggest a significant move is coming because price compression at key levels typically leads to expansion. The direction of this movement will depend on which trendline breaks first. A breakout above the downward trendline would likely attract new buyers looking to retest previous highs. Conversely, a drop below the upward trendline would lead to more aggressive selling as traders target deeper support levels. For those tracking derivatives markets, it’s important to carefully consider these upcoming events. Ahead of data releases, traders should use less leverage, and options may be a better strategy than full exposure. Timing is crucial when prices are tightly coiled, and significant events are approaching. Now is not the moment for impulsively chasing breaks. Instead, wait for confirmation before making trades. Allow price movements to signal entry points rather than acting on speculation. Exercising patience in these situations can lead to clearer trades, especially in the volatile crypto derivatives market. As has been seen before, entering too early during the compression phase can lead to unnecessary losses before the price direction is clear. Increased trading volume during any breakout, in either direction, should be a minimum requirement before making larger trades. Market responses to key events will guide the direction. Trading ahead of these events carries inherent risks, and this week in particular, emotional reactions may cloud rational decision-making without clear advantages. Volatility is making a comeback, and each upcoming announcement tightens the tension further. As we’ve learned, the longer the tension builds, the stronger the price movement when it finally occurs.

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