USD/CHF is stable around 0.7960 in early European trading on Monday. Traders are eagerly awaiting the US employment reports for October and November, set to be released on Tuesday. Increased uncertainty may enhance the attraction of the Swiss Franc as a safe haven. Inflation data due on Thursday is also being closely watched, alongside projections of potential US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026.

The Fed’s Rate Cut Projections

The Fed’s “dot plot” suggests one more rate cut next year, which may impact the USD. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank keeps the policy rate at 0%, showing a commitment to stability to control inflation. The US Nonfarm Payrolls data for October and November will be published on Tuesday, following a delay caused by a government shutdown. This risk-averse atmosphere supports CHF, posing challenges for the USD/CHF pair. The value of the Swiss Franc is shaped by market sentiment, the state of Switzerland’s economy, and actions from the SNB. While it was once pegged to the Euro, this is no longer true. However, its performance remains closely tied to the Eurozone’s economic health. As a safe-haven currency, CHF benefits from Switzerland’s stable economy and neutrality. The European Central Bank’s policies heavily influence CHF’s value due to its strong ties with the Eurozone.

Market Implications of the Upcoming Data Release

With USD/CHF near 0.7960, we are entering a time of greater uncertainty as 2025 wraps up. The key event this week is the delayed release of US employment data for two months on Tuesday, which will provide vital insights into the US labor market’s health. This unusual “double-NFP” release is expected to create significant volatility, higher than the monthly average. Traders dealing in derivatives should consider strategies that exploit sharp price movements, regardless of direction. Given the binary nature of the combined October and November jobs reports, buying a short-dated straddle could capture the expected volatility spike. If the jobs figure exceeds the estimated 300,000, we may see a strong rally. Conversely, a lower figure could cause the pair to drop below recent support levels. We have experienced data delays like this before; for instance, during the US government shutdown in 2013, which led to considerable market fluctuations. The long-term outlook appears to be leaning against the US Dollar, as the Federal Reserve’s projections point to at least one further rate cut in 2026. In contrast, the Swiss National Bank remains firm with its 0% policy rate. The Swiss Franc benefits from its safe-haven status in these uncertain times. Recent figures for November 2025 show Swiss inflation is low at just 1.2% year-over-year, giving the SNB plenty of space for patience. Any disappointment from US data might accelerate investments into the Franc. In addition to the jobs report, we should keep an eye on Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. A lower-than-expected inflation report would strengthen expectations for Fed rate cuts next year, which could limit any potential rally in the US Dollar, even if employment figures are strong. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now