US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Lebanon and Israel agreed a 10-day ceasefire. He said it will start on Thursday at 5 pm Eastern time.
He said he spoke with Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He added that the two countries met in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday for the first time in 34 years.
Ceasefire Details
He said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended the meeting. He also said he directed Vice President JD Vance, Rubio, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Razin’ Caine to work with both sides towards “lasting peace”.
In markets, the US Dollar was under mild selling pressure after the announcement. It still held most of its intraday gains across major currency pairs.
Trading moves were limited amid uncertainty over future US-Iran talks. The same update referred to negotiations aimed at pausing the Middle East war.
A correction issued at 15:50 GMT amended the date for the start of the 10-day ceasefire. The ceasefire start time remained 5 pm Eastern time.
Market Strategy Implications
This announcement signals a temporary drop in geopolitical tension in the Middle East, reducing the immediate risk premium in the market. We saw a similar pattern in late 2025 when initial reports of de-escalation talks caused the VIX to fall from 28 to below 22 in just a few sessions. Therefore, selling short-dated call options on market volatility indices appears to be a sound strategy to capitalize on this expected period of calm.
The most direct impact is on crude oil, with Brent futures already dropping nearly 4% to $106 a barrel in after-hours trading. We anticipate this weakness will continue, making buying put options on oil-related equities and ETFs a viable play for the next week. Given the ceasefire is only for 10 days, these should be short-term positions, as the underlying supply risk has not vanished.
We must remain cautious because a 10-day truce is notoriously fragile, and the broader uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to simmer. The U.S. Dollar Index holding firm above 107 reflects this skepticism, a lesson we learned from the brief market relief during the Strait of Hormuz tensions in 2025. It may be prudent to hedge any risk-on trades by holding some longer-dated call options on gold, which remains a key barometer of true regional stability.
