Trump wants China to increase its soybean purchases from the U.S. by four times. Both countries are trying to reach a middle ground in ongoing trade talks, but real progress is hard to find. After the Phase One trade deal in 2018/19, China reduced its soybean imports from the U.S., and even after the agreement, purchases never bounced back.

Trade Dynamics

By 2020, China mainly sourced soybeans from Brazil, ignoring actual trade numbers. Although China promised to buy record amounts of U.S. soybeans, it fulfilled only about 58% of its commitments under the trade deal. This ongoing pattern indicates that trade dynamics remain stable, and any agreements might be overlooked or canceled after Trump’s presidency. While Trump uses trade deals for political leverage, China’s actions show that it benefits more, resulting in few real concessions. Market reactions might mirror past behaviors, where actual trade data becomes less important. If both countries maintain a friendly image, worries about geopolitics and trade could lessen, helping to stabilize risk sentiment. As of today, August 11, 2025, we see a familiar trend in China’s soybean demands. This situation resembles what we saw during Trump’s first term. History tells us that large promises in trade often do not lead to consistent purchases. In 2025, China’s customs data from July shows soybean imports from Brazil are up 15% compared to last year. Meanwhile, USDA reports indicate U.S. soybean commitments to China are nearly 30% lower than before the initial trade war. This data confirms China’s shift towards South American suppliers is solid.

Market Opportunities

For those trading soybean futures, any price increase from these announcements may be short-lived. If a rally occurs due to political statements instead of actual shipping orders, it may be a chance to adopt bearish positions. These headlines are just noise, not a real change in demand for U.S. beans. The trend of talking without action suggests selling volatility after price spikes driven by news. When news strikes and implied volatility on soybean futures (ZS) rises, it often pays to bet on it returning to normal. The market structure isn’t really changing, so sustained fear is unlikely. As long as both sides are just talking, we can anticipate limited risk-off sentiment in the overall market. This creates opportunities for range-bound strategies on equity indices sensitive to trade news. The market seems satisfied as long as no new harmful tariffs are being put into place. We witnessed a similar situation from 2019 to 2020. Initial market enthusiasm over trade announcements frequently faded when the monthly trade data showed China was not keeping up with its promises. Betting against these headline-driven rallies was the right strategy then, and the current setup looks much the same. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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