US President Trump is expected to visit China on 14–15 May. Both countries are presented as aiming to keep the relationship steady and to maintain the tariff truce agreed last October.
The expected focus is on keeping the existing truce in place and seeking additional concessions where incentives match. Near-term outcomes are framed around non-sensitive trade areas rather than a broad reset.
Trip Framing And Risk Containment
The article notes that recent media reports are described as pre-visit positioning. It states that the trip could help avoid renewed escalation amid higher trade barriers and supply-chain disruption.
It describes preparations as practical and deal-based, with a March meeting in Paris said to have centred on trade. A previous truce in Busan last year is referenced as a possible model.
Potential measures mentioned include tariff cuts on selected products. Other options include extending or easing certain US non-tariff limits, Chinese purchases of US goods such as agriculture, energy and aircraft, and ongoing Chinese supply of critical minerals.
Looking back at the stability that followed the Busan truce in 2025, the current situation points toward a pragmatic relationship rather than a dramatic market-moving event. The core objective is to maintain the status quo, which should keep market volatility in check. For traders, this suggests strategies that benefit from range-bound price action are preferable to betting on a major breakout.
Index Volatility And Range Bound Setups
With this backdrop, we should consider selling volatility on major indices sensitive to trade news. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has recently been trading in the 14-16 range, well below its historical average of 19, and this political stability is likely to keep it suppressed. This environment makes strategies like short strangles or iron condors on index ETFs attractive, as they profit from low price movement.
Specific concessions, like Chinese purchases of US agriculture and energy, create targeted opportunities. US soybean exports to China, a key indicator, have remained steady this year, and any new purchase agreements would create a firm floor for prices. This makes selling puts on agricultural commodity ETFs a reasonable play, capitalizing on the limited downside risk.
Conversely, the focus on “non-sensitive” sectors implies a ceiling for industries facing restrictions, such as advanced semiconductors. We saw how the US trade deficit with China fell to a decade low last year, partly due to these targeted restrictions on tech. Therefore, buying call options on the most restricted tech stocks seems risky, as a comprehensive breakthrough is not expected.
The currency market, especially the USD/CNY pair, is also likely to exhibit low volatility as China seeks stability to support these transactional deals. The pair has been trading in a tight band for months, and a quiet diplomatic outcome would reinforce this trend. This favors range-trading strategies over large directional bets on the yuan’s movement.
