Former President Trump took to social media to share his views on Iran, stating that no uranium enrichment would be allowed. This message may affect oil markets. Oil prices are slowly rising. If an agreement with Iran happens, it could weaken reasons for boosting oil supply. However, Trump’s stance against uranium enrichment might block quick deals. This could help keep oil prices stable.

Middle East Uncertainty

Trump’s recent statement about uranium enrichment adds to the uncertainty in the Middle East. By opposing Iran’s nuclear program, he increases tension in already sensitive talks about Iranian oil exports. Markets had started to consider the possibility of new oil supplies, which usually lowers prices. But now, with negotiations facing obstacles, those expectations are fading fast. In energy derivatives, especially linked contracts, we see more short-term volatility ahead. Changes that affect global oil supply can quickly impact futures pricing. The chance of new Iranian oil coming to market seems farther away, which limits the quick drop in prices. Derivative markets are starting to reflect this risk. Near-term contracts for July and August have slightly risen as hopes for rapid policy changes shrink. This pricing behavior shows a shift in sentiment—not drastic, but enough to indicate a change in previous expectations.

Geopolitical Impact

Traders should pay close attention to geopolitical news, especially regarding nuclear talks or sanctions. These updates directly affect supply expectations and prices. Timing for buying and selling must be precise since news is now influencing intraday positions more than before. In situations where policy has a big impact, timing is crucial. Currently, short-term supply factors are being prioritized over long-term demand trends. This focus may last for a while, so positions in longer-dated oil futures should assume prices might stay low if clear supply increases don’t appear. Finally, we shouldn’t overlook the comments from political leaders who have influenced sanctions before. While these remarks are not policies in themselves, they often lead to price changes within a few sessions. This pattern has happened in the past, and we should expect it to continue. Thus, keeping a close watch on updates is vital. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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