Turkey’s consumer confidence index rose to 85.7 in February, up from 83.7 the previous month.
That is a 2.0-point increase from the prior reading.
Consumer Confidence Shows Modest Improvement
The rise in Turkish consumer confidence from 83.7 to 85.7 is a small but positive sign for the domestic economy. It suggests households feel slightly more optimistic, which could help support local equities in the coming weeks. We see this as a reason to stay cautiously bullish on Turkish assets.
This update follows a difficult period, with inflation ending 2025 at around 68%. The central bank’s aggressive rate hikes last year were intended to reduce that pressure. The uptick in confidence may indicate those policies are improving stability without fully weakening consumer demand.
For equity traders, this could be supportive for the BIST 100 index, which rallied strongly during 2025 as local investors looked for inflation protection. One way to express this view is through near-term call options on major Turkish ETFs. Another approach is selling out-of-the-money put spreads to collect premium, if this news helps create a short-term floor for the market.
For the currency, this single data point is unlikely to change the broader direction in USD/TRY. The lira has continued to depreciate gradually, with the exchange rate moving above 42.00 earlier this month. We do not view this consumer confidence figure as a strong reason to go long the Turkish lira.
Options And Volatility Considerations
Improved sentiment could lead to a small drop in implied volatility, which may make options slightly cheaper in the short term. Even so, Turkish markets remain highly sensitive to inflation readings and central bank decisions. Any derivatives positions should be sized for sharp swings, as this is still a high-risk environment.
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