Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index rose to 100.7 in January, up from 99.4 the previous month. This is a move above the key 100-point level.
The index combines sentiment data from across the economy. It helps track how confidence changes over time.
Economic Confidence Shifts Above Threshold
The Economic Confidence Index has moved above 100, a sign of optimism not seen since early 2025. This change suggests sentiment is shifting from negative to positive. For Turkish assets, that is generally a bullish signal. For derivatives traders, it may point to improving momentum over the next few weeks.
This stronger mood adds to the solid performance of the BIST 100 index in the final quarter of 2025. One way to gain from a continued rise is to consider call options on the index with March and April 2026 expirations. Another approach is to sell out-of-the-money put options to earn premium, based on the view that higher confidence may help support prices.
The Turkish lira has also been more stable, staying below 30.00 per US dollar through February 2026. Inflation data released in January showed a slow decline, with annual inflation at 45%. That improves the fundamental backdrop for the currency. In this setting, derivatives positions that benefit from lira strength—or from lower USD/TRY volatility—may be worth considering.
The Central Bank has also kept its policy rate at 40% in its last two meetings, which signals a focus on stability. Along with rising confidence, this could push implied volatility lower. If the market keeps strengthening without large swings, strategies such as selling straddles may perform well compared with the sharper moves seen for much of last year.
Volatility Strategies For A Stable Market
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