Turkey’s trade balance improved in January. The deficit narrowed to -8.38B from -9.3B in the previous period.
This means exports and imports moved closer together. The trade balance was still negative, but the gap got smaller.
A smaller trade deficit is a positive sign for the Turkish Lira. It suggests policies meant to rebalance the economy may be starting to work. Derivatives traders can treat this as added support for trades that expect the Lira to stay stable or strengthen in the near term.
This result adds to the better momentum seen in Q4 2025. Inflation fell to 38% in December, and the Central Bank kept rates steady at 50%. Together, these points improve the macro outlook. Under these conditions, selling USD/TRY futures or buying Lira call options looks more supported by fundamentals for the weeks ahead.
This also fits with the major policy shift that started in mid-2023 and continued through 2024. The current stability reflects that long period of tighter monetary policy. January’s trade numbers are among the first key data points of 2026 showing that this difficult approach is producing the intended results.
For equity derivatives traders, this backdrop is supportive for the BIST 100. A more stable currency lowers uncertainty and can attract foreign capital. Net portfolio inflows topped $12B in the second half of 2025. Given this, it may make sense to hold or add to long positions in BIST 100 futures.
A steadier market should also reduce the sharp currency swings seen in recent years. The Lira’s VIX-like volatility measure has dropped from above 40% in 2024 to just under 25% this month. This makes volatility-selling options strategies more realistic, including short strangles on EUR/TRY.
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