Turkey reported a positive change in its treasury cash balance for November. The balance shifted from a deficit of -195.879 billion to a surplus of 56.39 billion. This improvement suggests better revenue collection and controlled spending, possibly providing some stability for future fiscal decisions.

Financial Markets Prepare for Federal Reserve Meeting

In other news, financial markets are taking a cautious approach ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. Anticipated rate cuts could influence assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced price fluctuations, while gold has seen changes amid a stronger US dollar. Investors will be closely monitoring these trends as they prepare for the evolving economic landscape. Further updates will shed light on Turkey’s treasury situation and its impact on the markets. The rise in Turkey’s treasury cash balance indicates better fiscal discipline. This is evident in the country’s 5-year credit default swaps, which have declined to about 250 basis points—down significantly from over 700 in 2023. For traders, this added stability might make selling volatility in the USD/TRY pair an appealing strategy, potentially minimizing sharp currency movements. All attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on December 17th. Latest U.S. inflation data from November 2025 showed a mild 2.8% increase, leading Fed funds futures to indicate over a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. This high expectation makes buying put options on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) a viable strategy to protect against a dovish policy shift.

Market Implications and Trading Strategies

The anticipated rate cut is boosting other markets, with gold futures already up 4% this month, inching towards the $2,450 per ounce mark. We expect traders to prepare for a year-end rally by buying call options on gold and major equity indices. Given the already high implied volatility, using call spreads could be an efficient way to invest in further price increases. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has stabilized around the $85,000 level as it waits for the Fed’s decision. The likelihood of lower rates usually encourages interest in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Consequently, we might see a significant increase in the purchasing of perpetual futures contracts if the Fed indicates a move toward easing monetary policy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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