ING’s James Smith describes a softer UK economic backdrop than in 2022, with vacancies falling, unemployment rising and wage growth slowing, alongside limited pricing and bargaining power for firms and workers. He says the Bank of England (BoE) faces a choice between holding rates for longer or making a symbolic move, and argues that benign natural gas prices reduce the immediate pressure to act.
ING’s updated energy-price base case assumes a big spike in July, which shifts its call towards a single summer rate rise as the most likely outcome. Smith also says the BoE had otherwise been on track to cut rates at least twice this year, meaning that simply refraining would amount to de facto tightening. He adds that markets are pricing two hikes by next spring, while ING’s view remains that any summer increase would probably be a one-and-done move.
UK Labour Market Weakness and Implications for Rates
We see the UK economic backdrop as much softer than it was a couple of years ago. The latest data shows unemployment has edged up to 4.5%, while wage growth, though still firm at 5.5%, continues to cool. This suggests households and businesses have less power to push up prices.
This leaves the Bank of England caught between holding rates steady for a long time or making a symbolic summer hike. With UK natural gas prices currently stable around 75p per therm, the immediate pressure to act is low. Remember, just by not cutting rates as was expected earlier this year, policy is already getting tighter.
However, we are watching for a potential spike in energy prices next month, in July 2026. Should this happen, the Bank will find it very difficult to avoid a single 25 basis point rate hike over the summer. In our view, this would likely be a one-and-done move to manage inflation expectations.
Market Pricing and Investment Opportunities
The key opportunity we see is in the difference between this view and current market pricing. As of today, June 11th, SONIA futures are pricing in at least two full hikes by spring 2027. We believe this is an overstatement of the Bank’s likely path.
Therefore, we are considering positions that would benefit if the Bank Rate peaks after a single summer hike and does not rise further. This involves looking at rate options or selling SONIA futures for early 2027 delivery, which currently imply a higher terminal rate than we anticipate. This strategy bets that the underlying economic weakness, evidenced by falling job vacancies now below 900,000, will ultimately limit the Bank’s tightening cycle.
